Win rate
57.6%
727 W / 536 L
Total PnL
$93,352
realized $9,187 · unrealized $84,165
Portfolio
$84,165
volume $6,139,305
Predictions
1,041
22.8/day · avg $5,898
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/07/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 53% +$28,668
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-210 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$291 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | +$0 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-243 | loss |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | loss |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-427 | loss |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-258 | loss |
| Will the US strike another country first? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2,433 | loss |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-266 | loss |
Geopolitics 59% +$23,781
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-395 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$1,846 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$1,127 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$1,019 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-884 | loss |
| Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$504 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$301 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$128 | win |
Politics 68% +$21,387
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | 46¢ | 36¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 12¢ | 21¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-674 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$257 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$363 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | +$17 | win |
Elections 43% +$12,832
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | No | 85¢ | 78¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 91¢ | 75¢ | $-342 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$415 | win |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 42¢ | 85¢ | +$275 | win |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-485 | loss |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-176 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-46 | loss |
Crypto 80% +$552
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 52¢ | 62¢ | +$334 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 38¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$169 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$55 | win |
Sports 100% +$284
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$284 | win |
Mentions 100% +$210
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stephen Hawking be named in the Epstein survivors' list? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 83% +$84
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 10¢ | +$19 | win |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by October 15? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-169 | loss |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 50% $-42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | +$3,515 | $753 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,991 | $8,106 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 30.8¢ | 100¢ | +$787 | $1,159 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$435 | $6,011 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$269 | $4,818 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | +$153 | $1,135 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $60 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $205 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 40.7¢ | 0¢ | $-197 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | $-341 | $8,486 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-758 | $1,496 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-824 | $13,170 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2,364 | $11,601 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7,881 | $9,478 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | +$752 | $277 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 40.7¢ | 84¢ | +$749 | $1,323 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | +$643 | $106 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 52.5¢ | 16¢ | +$536 | $1,552 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | +$415 | $157 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 41.9¢ | 85¢ | +$275 | $1,224 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 85¢ | +$252 | $140 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 40.0¢ | 84¢ | +$121 | $2,490 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | +$103 | $74 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | $170 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 19.4¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $170 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $256 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $209 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | $-46 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | No | 58.1¢ | 15¢ | $-56 | $400 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | $-86 | $274 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | No | 69.0¢ | 88¢ | $-94 | $500 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | $-122 | $502 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 10.3¢ | 1¢ | $-132 | $150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | $-176 | $376 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-284 | $284 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | $-485 | $1,300 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-194 | $289 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $193 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 65.3¢ | 16¢ | $-3,732 | $7,379 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $-856 | $1,194 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $39 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | $105 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 2.3¢ | 1¢ | +$133 | $105 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $93 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 83.2¢ | 84¢ | +$354 | $7,148 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $67 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | No | 56.4¢ | 16¢ | $-748 | $2,402 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 60.1¢ | 100¢ | +$247 | $1,502 | 12/04/2026 |