Win rate
67.7%
214 W / 102 L
Total PnL
$3,162
realized $-8,705 · unrealized $11,867
Portfolio
$11,867
volume $1,669,948
Predictions
340
1.6/day · avg $4,912
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 61% +$7,804
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$286 | win |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 83¢ | +$231 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-237 | loss |
| Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2,245 | win |
| Pump.fun all time high by December 31? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$1,201 | win |
| Aster all time high by December 31? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$599 | win |
| Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$353 | win |
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | win |
| Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | win |
Finance 88% +$3,320
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 58¢ | 48¢ | +$3 | win |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Yes | 41¢ | 52¢ | +$0 | win |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? | No | 72¢ | 80¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 72¢ | +$8 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 75¢ | 88¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$717 | win |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? | No | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$52 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Economy 79% +$1,671
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 70¢ | 74¢ | +$1,050 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$324 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| US GDP declines in Q3 2024? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Geopolitics 72% +$1,591
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$155 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 64¢ | 22¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 52¢ | 84¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 42¢ | 78¢ | $-187 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 70¢ | +$214 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 63¢ | 94¢ | +$14 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-728 | loss |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-137 | loss |
Sports 67% +$1,015
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Wings vs Mercury | Mercury | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Rockies vs. Red Sox | Red Sox | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$341 | win |
| Valkyries vs Dream | Dream | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | win |
| Yankees vs. Mets | Yankees | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$442 | win |
| Angels vs. Blue Jays | Blue Jays | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$330 | win |
| Reds vs. Phillies | Phillies | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$266 | win |
| Cardinals vs. Cubs | Cubs | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | win |
| Tigers vs. Guardians | Tigers | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$232 | win |
Tech 60% $-847
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 48¢ | 41¢ | $-3 | loss |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 50¢ | 59¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-1,428 | loss |
Crypto 69% $-1,065
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 82¢ | +$431 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-3,420 | loss |
| Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Solana all time high before 2026? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$1,051 | win |
| Bitcoin all time high before 2026? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$264 | win |
| Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | win |
| Bitcoin all time high before 2026? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-142 | loss |
| Ethereum all time high before 2026? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-6,801 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110K in July? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-280 | loss |
Politics 67% $-2,134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$54 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 56¢ | 88¢ | +$719 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Trump x Elon talk before August? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill by July 8? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Trump imposes 200% tariff on China before June? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Culture 67% $-3,425
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China bans US films in April? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-913 | loss |
| Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards? | No | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-470 | loss |
| Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked"? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-221 | loss |
| Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-2,547 | loss |
| Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | win |
| Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
Elections 43% $-4,841
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | $-0 | loss |
| S&P500 all time high after election is called? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bitcoin all time high day after election? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump win 7 swing states? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-3,546 | loss |
| Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $178 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $400 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 88¢ | +$719 | $1,584 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? | Yes | 44.9¢ | 100¢ | +$717 | $584 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $1,690 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? | No | 85.8¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | $-137 | $1,380 | 31/03/2026 |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$324 | $2,214 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,245 | $19,777 | 01/01/2026 |
| Pump.fun all time high by December 31? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,201 | $4,976 | 01/01/2026 |
| Aster all time high by December 31? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $345 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $195 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 34.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4,041 | $7,597 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 47.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3,038 | $7,771 | 31/12/2025 |
| Solana all time high before 2026? | No | 62.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,051 | $15,789 | 31/12/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$599 | $16,740 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$388 | $4,503 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | No | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$368 | $4,386 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? | No | 75.4¢ | 100¢ | +$368 | $8,204 | 31/12/2025 |
| Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? | No | 20.6¢ | 0¢ | +$353 | $3,264 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025? | No | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$277 | $3,131 | 31/12/2025 |
| Bitcoin all time high before 2026? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$264 | $2,986 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$174 | $8,027 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | No | 70.5¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | $4,593 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? | No | 68.6¢ | 0¢ | +$150 | $2,016 | 31/12/2025 |
| Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? | No | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $1,505 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $334 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025? | No | 73.1¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $1,326 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | $154 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025? | No | 18.7¢ | 0¢ | +$52 | $312 | 31/12/2025 |
| Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? | No | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | $117 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | +$46 | $106 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025? | No | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $409 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | $186 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? | No | 55.8¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $159 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? | No | 44.1¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $644 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $941 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2025? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $440 | 31/12/2025 |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $173 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025? | No | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $40 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? | Yes | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $505 | 31/12/2025 |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $1,958 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $961 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? | Yes | 61.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $1,921 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $22 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $62 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 65.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $14,377 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 47.3¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $250 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $28 | 31/12/2025 |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | No | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $761 | 31/12/2025 |