ceeper

Geopolitics 87% +$399 $5,836 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	75¢	86¢	+$40	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	43¢	30¢	+$32	win
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	85¢	86¢	+$0	—
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	88¢	91¢	$-2	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	80¢	94¢	+$118	win
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	96¢	96¢	$-6	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	81¢	99¢	+$117	win
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?	No	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	88¢	100¢	+$75	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	36¢	100¢	+$6	win

Other 83% +$80 $4,142 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	84¢	92¢	$-12	loss
Maduro out in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	+$55	win
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$4	win

Elections 50% +$17 $3,045 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	18¢	17¢	+$0	win
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$-2	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$-2	loss
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	85¢	84¢	$-0	loss
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?	No	98¢	100¢	+$10	win

Politics 60% $-89 $5,681 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	+$31	win
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	29¢	27¢	$-84	loss
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	93¢	78¢	$-2	loss
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	77¢	84¢	$-73	loss
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	+$29	win
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?	No	79¢	100¢	+$10	win

Crypto 43% $-100 $4,950 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	98¢	96¢	$-2	loss
Will Solana reach $140 in March?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?	No	98¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	No	97¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$4	win

Economy 50% $-223 $1,000 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-224	loss
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win