0x5D12e98ee9a10c341c6D8E5D1c7088963B114Fc0-1767859368940

Elections 43% +$77 $1,048 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	31¢	22¢	$-3	loss
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	62¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	34¢	39¢	+$2	win
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?	Yes	65¢	80¢	+$6	win
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	50¢	36¢	$-5	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	45¢	66¢	+$35	win
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	79¢	96¢	$-0	loss
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	59¢	42¢	$-10	loss
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	58¢	56¢	$-1	loss
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?	Yes	67¢	91¢	+$23	win

Politics 50% +$59 $1,248 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	22¢	21¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	39¢	0¢	$-136	loss
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Yes	20¢	16¢	$-13	loss
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	Yes	73¢	63¢	$-4	loss
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?	Yes	63¢	30¢	$-15	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	73¢	88¢	+$5	win
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	70¢	60¢	$-13	loss
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	39¢	39¢	$-1	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	60¢	44¢	$-17	loss
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	No	73¢	0¢	$-5	loss

Other 53% +$54 $2,732 vol · 59 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	27¢	1¢	$-8	loss
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	62¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	60¢	32¢	$-9	loss
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	58¢	30¢	$-39	loss
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	15¢	8¢	$-70	loss
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	37¢	36¢	$-2	loss
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	40¢	44¢	+$3	win
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	38¢	64¢	+$25	win
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	61¢	62¢	+$1	win
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	59¢	64¢	$-1	loss

Sports 54% +$40 $382 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	28¢	2¢	$-4	loss
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	23¢	23¢	$-3	loss
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	55¢	56¢	+$1	win
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	79¢	96¢	+$5	win
Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?	Yes	75¢	42¢	$-12	loss
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-7	loss

Crypto 100% +$15 $95 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	Silver	79¢	100¢	+$7	win
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	Gold	84¢	100¢	+$7	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	77¢	78¢	+$0	win

Tech 50% +$2 $44 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	52¢	38¢	$-2	loss
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$4	win

Culture 33% $-6 $79 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	53¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$-12	loss

Weather 57% $-25 $246 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	No	52¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?	Yes	52¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?	Yes	53¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	Yes	53¢	100¢	+$34	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$9	win

Geopolitics 38% $-833 $8,047 vol · 95 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	62¢	58¢	$-2	loss
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	90¢	100¢	+$11	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$65	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$10	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	12¢	6¢	$-2	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	59¢	76¢	$-5	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	64¢	30¢	$-14	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	70¢	100¢	$-24	loss