Win rate
58.5%
166 W / 118 L
Total PnL
$7,952
realized $5,677 · unrealized $2,275
Portfolio
$2,275
volume $74,037,708
Predictions
385
9.3/day · avg $192,306
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 57% +$7,118
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavi Hernandez be the next Chelsea manager? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 14¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | Yes | 35¢ | 14¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will any Premier League club reach 90 points? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | No | 56¢ | 91¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | Yes | 53¢ | 44¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 19¢ | 34¢ | +$4 | win |
Geopolitics 51% +$2,941
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | +$4 | win |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | Yes | 29¢ | 10¢ | $-93 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 3¢ | +$9 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 44¢ | 84¢ | $-8 | loss |
Elections 100% +$79
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | Yes | 19¢ | 22¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 100% +$30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | No | 16¢ | 10¢ | +$30 | win |
Culture 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 0% $-25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? | Down | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Crypto 43% $-154
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | ETH | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Solana reach $120 in February? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Politics 85% $-795
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | Yes | 47¢ | 66¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 51¢ | 55¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? | Yes | 55¢ | 42¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-1,167 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 64¢ | 73¢ | +$32 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $375 | 18/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | +$390 | $560 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$222 | $9,900 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 74.7¢ | 0¢ | +$165 | $3,067 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $491 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-704 | $186 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-712 | $2,892 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 53.4¢ | 17¢ | +$35 | $887 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | $171 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | $-200 | $12,130 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 22.3¢ | 0¢ | +$457 | $24,876 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4,974 | $52,984 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 48.9¢ | 18¢ | $-26 | $56 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,042 | $5,111 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 15-21, 2026 (ET)? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $500 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1,533 | $5,979 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$938 | $5,224 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$761 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$609 | $11,725 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | +$501 | $1,408 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$499 | $6,175 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$446 | $16,995 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$327 | $1,782 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$299 | $940 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | No | 49.8¢ | 100¢ | +$253 | $448 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? | Yes | 10.5¢ | 0¢ | +$251 | $89 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 48.7¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | $422 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | No | 30.5¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | $225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? | Yes | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $1,178 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026? | No | 86.3¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $758 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $486 | 31/03/2026 |
| Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$84 | $193 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Yes | 62.4¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $205 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 41.9¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $72 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $89 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $1,418 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | $111 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026? | Yes | 12.2¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 46.5¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between February 20-23, 2026? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $913 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $151 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 47.5¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $496 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $371 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $117 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between February 16-19, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $673 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $215 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will more than 10 Senate Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |