Win rate
65.5%
38 W / 20 L
Total PnL
$2,276
realized $-3,626 · unrealized $5,902
Portfolio
$5,902
volume $47,566
Predictions
66
2.0/day · avg $721
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 61% +$1,817
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-439 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 84¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 45¢ | 76¢ | +$876 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$20 | win |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 81¢ | +$13 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 74¢ | 32¢ | +$13 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 90¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 94¢ | +$39 | win |
Politics 83% +$269
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | No | 50¢ | 34¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 72¢ | 66¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Other 50% +$94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 47¢ | 55¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | No | 79¢ | 96¢ | +$94 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 62.2¢ | 0¢ | +$381 | $1,110 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 57.7¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $41 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 21.6¢ | 100¢ | +$378 | $187 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 38.2¢ | 92¢ | $-3 | $24 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 37.3¢ | 100¢ | +$476 | $475 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 63.4¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $274 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $176 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $121 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $72 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $72 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | No | 48.3¢ | 100¢ | +$229 | $242 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | No | 48.2¢ | 100¢ | +$359 | $399 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 34.7¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | $249 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 32.7¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | $139 | 01/01/1970 |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | No | 41.0¢ | 20¢ | $-10 | $20 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 41.5¢ | 92¢ | +$18 | $30 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 99¢ | +$15 | $70 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 26.7¢ | 16¢ | $-73 | $192 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 56.5¢ | 96¢ | +$262 | $371 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 69.8¢ | 94¢ | +$96 | $293 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 70.3¢ | 92¢ | +$18 | $56 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $86 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 72.2¢ | 66¢ | +$7 | $114 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 32¢ | $-39 | $263 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 79.0¢ | 68¢ | $-6 | $119 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | No | 79.0¢ | 96¢ | +$94 | $452 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 78.1¢ | 99¢ | +$49 | $180 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 82.3¢ | 96¢ | +$28 | $174 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 68.7¢ | 68¢ | $-1 | $131 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 80.7¢ | 94¢ | +$25 | $153 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026? | No | 68.0¢ | 94¢ | +$26 | $68 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 73.3¢ | 99¢ | +$68 | $226 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 67.5¢ | 94¢ | +$39 | $108 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 83.5¢ | 50¢ | +$26 | $210 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 83.2¢ | 95¢ | +$24 | $278 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $86 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | No | 50.0¢ | 34¢ | +$4 | $124 | 30/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | No | 86.0¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 47.0¢ | 55¢ | $-0 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 75.7¢ | 36¢ | $-4 | $114 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 44.0¢ | 19¢ | $-16 | $44 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | No | 54.1¢ | 0¢ | $-371 | $371 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 43.1¢ | 0¢ | $-737 | $1,384 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 79.8¢ | 94¢ | +$20 | $112 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | 42.3¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $204 | 31/05/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 75.0¢ | 90¢ | +$10 | $51 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 73.5¢ | 32¢ | +$13 | $192 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $33 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? | No | 33.8¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $49 | 30/06/2026 |