lukas11

Geopolitics 81% +$2,530 $16,814 vol · 58 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	39¢	72¢	$-8	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	42¢	76¢	+$336	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	56¢	71¢	+$360	win
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	55¢	56¢	+$2	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	78¢	94¢	+$20	win
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	68¢	0¢	$-318	loss
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	75¢	96¢	+$40	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	42¢	0¢	$-710	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	80¢	0¢	$-135	loss
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	85¢	98¢	+$27	win

Culture 70% +$1,126 $1,684 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	74¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-145	loss
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	78¢	100¢	+$44	win
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?	No	84¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	No	46¢	0¢	$-86	loss
Will Sung Jinwoo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$66	win

Crypto 77% +$413 $9,339 vol · 75 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	56¢	62¢	+$19	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	74¢	79¢	+$25	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	60¢	0¢	$-473	loss
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	No	65¢	100¢	+$58	win
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?	100k	37¢	50¢	+$26	win
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-57	loss
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?	No	71¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	100k	45¢	0¢	$-101	loss
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	No	38¢	0¢	$-176	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $116K in September?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$3	win

Economy 100% +$401 $1,164 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$308	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$71	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	No	86¢	100¢	+$22	win

Politics 78% +$357 $9,086 vol · 52 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	56¢	66¢	+$198	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	78¢	74¢	+$0	—
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?	No	68¢	100¢	+$211	win
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in January?	No	62¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?	No	66¢	0¢	$-258	loss
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in December?	No	84¢	100¢	+$36	win
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?	No	82¢	100¢	+$52	win
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025?	No	88¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?	No	56¢	0¢	+$31	win
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?	No	64¢	100¢	+$15	win

Tech 59% +$131 $2,934 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	64¢	100¢	+$240	win
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	No	77¢	100¢	+$56	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Yes	47¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	88¢	100¢	+$36	win
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$79	win
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	73¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	No	83¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-63	loss
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	Yes	60¢	0¢	$-241	loss

Sports 64% +$27 $5,754 vol · 33 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	9¢	$-5	loss
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	62¢	57¢	$-65	loss
Will Finland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	52¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-52	loss
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	16¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will Son Heung-min sign with a new club during the transfer window?	No	63¢	0¢	$-229	loss
Will Rodrygo Silva de Goes sign with a new club during the transfer window?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-8	loss
FIFA Club World Cup: Will Vinicius Junior score another goal?	No	32¢	100¢	+$183	win
FIFA Club World Cup: Will Messi score another goal?	No	69¢	100¢	+$102	win

Elections 0% $-435 $3,921 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	43¢	40¢	$-285	loss
Will Brazilian president Lula announce re-election run by December 31?	No	64¢	0¢	$-110	loss
Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-41	loss

Other 62% $-436 $22,700 vol · 155 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	62¢	80¢	+$68	win
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	61¢	30¢	$-6	loss
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	32¢	64¢	+$284	win
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	66¢	57¢	$-48	loss
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	58¢	64¢	$-2	loss
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	64¢	85¢	+$37	win
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	No	68¢	0¢	$-107	loss
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	60¢	78¢	+$30	win
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	73¢	77¢	+$7	win
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	72¢	99¢	+$32	win