Win rate
38.8%
19 W / 30 L
Total PnL
$73
realized $-798 · unrealized $871
Portfolio
$871
volume $390,975
Predictions
54
2.3/day · avg $7,240
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/05/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 43% +$49
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-2 | loss |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-10 | loss |
Economy 100% +$44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | +$44 | win |
Sports 36% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 11¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 15¢ | 15¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Geopolitics 50% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 9¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 68¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 27% $-16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 84¢ | 83¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 41¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 78¢ | 78¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 40% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 75¢ | 73¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | Yes | 14¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,416 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,098 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,250 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $2,203 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $2,207 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $62 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $113 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 7.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $86 | 04/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $597 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $423 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 97¢ | $-14 | $1,073 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 3¢ | +$66 | $290 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,202 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 97.9¢ | 98¢ | $-2 | $1,994 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 2¢ | $-10 | $63 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 77.7¢ | 78¢ | $-1 | $872 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.7¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | $2,182 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | Yes | 14.3¢ | 1¢ | +$4 | $310 | 16/06/2026 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $1,118 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $53 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 14.6¢ | 15¢ | +$8 | $901 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,124 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 96.1¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | $625 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85.2¢ | 85¢ | $-0 | $3,670 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 16¢ | $-5 | $723 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84.4¢ | 83¢ | $-3 | $1,120 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6.8¢ | 7¢ | $-0 | $392 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92.6¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | $1,107 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 87.1¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | $1,073 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.2¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $1,124 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96.7¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $1,074 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9.4¢ | 9¢ | $-1 | $188 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12.7¢ | 11¢ | $-2 | $249 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7.5¢ | 4¢ | +$44 | $298 | 29/07/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 10¢ | +$10 | $162 | 20/09/2026 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 97.6¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $1,113 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2.7¢ | 2¢ | $-0 | $225 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.3¢ | 95¢ | +$4 | $2,222 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.5¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $1,064 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 87.8¢ | 41¢ | $-7 | $818 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $454 | 09/12/2026 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | $72 | 09/12/2026 |
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 97.5¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $1,107 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 2¢ | $-2 | $69 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | No | 86.2¢ | 68¢ | +$1 | $1,108 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 7¢ | $-0 | $115 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 8.2¢ | 9¢ | $-2 | $183 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 1¢ | $-8 | $272 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 3¢ | +$1 | $225 | 07/11/2028 |