Chairwarmer

Politics 79% +$893 $2,970 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026?	No	90¢	99¢	+$3	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	42¢	42¢	+$0	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	40¢	44¢	+$3	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	22¢	34¢	+$84	win
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	Yes	11¢	1¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Yes	42¢	100¢	+$61	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	No	88¢	100¢	+$509	win

Other 38% +$237 $3,900 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	86¢	82¢	$-0	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	54¢	14¢	$-861	loss
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	72¢	41¢	$-8	loss
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	37¢	100¢	+$922	win
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	21¢	7¢	$-5	loss
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	8¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	64¢	42¢	$-167	loss
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?	No	60¢	100¢	+$121	win
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?	No	64¢	100¢	+$18	win

Crypto 0% $-4 $73 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	71¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	88¢	0¢	$-3	loss

Geopolitics 36% $-1,305 $15,160 vol · 48 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	17¢	74¢	$-10	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$45	win
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	59¢	82¢	+$4	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	32¢	6¢	$-4	loss
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	74¢	+$32	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	20¢	1¢	$-36	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	55¢	100¢	$-190	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	No	61¢	0¢	$-113	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	45¢	90¢	+$83	win
Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	59¢	96¢	+$52	win