Win rate
50.5%
3156 W / 3095 L
Total PnL
$95,029
realized $-60,100 · unrealized $155,130
Portfolio
$155,130
volume $20,897,548
Predictions
4,059
103.4/day · avg $5,148
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/01/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 49% +$20,836
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 6¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Denman Rooke win the 2026 Galway West by-election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-66 | loss |
| Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | -0¢ | 1¢ | +$371 | win |
| Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-197 | loss |
| Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-974 | loss |
| Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$503 | win |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-3,365 | loss |
| Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $-230 | loss |
Finance 57% +$1,588
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$604 | win |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$644 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 5¢ | 6¢ | +$909 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-250 | loss |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | -1¢ | 2¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | -0¢ | 1¢ | +$39 | win |
| Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-49 | loss |
Culture 56% +$1,268
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 54¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | No | 75¢ | 93¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 13¢ | 7¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | No | 50¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m? | No | 50¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m? | Yes | 10¢ | 30¢ | +$214 | win |
| Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | Yes | 10¢ | 14¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 20m? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-266 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 31m? | No | 50¢ | 68¢ | +$0 | — |
Esports 83% +$117
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will G2 Esports win First Stand 2026? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will G2 Esports win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Weather 59% $-50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-389 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
Economy 65% $-51
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Mentions 56% $-1,173
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$142 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-2,670 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,460 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-2,538 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-154 | loss |
Tech 50% $-1,311
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-300 | loss |
| Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-415 | loss |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-582 | loss |
| Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-35 | loss |
Politics 52% $-6,285
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-278 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-2,619 | loss |
| Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-258 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-76 | loss |
| Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 9.50% and 10.00%? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5.50% and 6.00%? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-217 | loss |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-33 | loss |
Crypto 49% $-16,588
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will USD.AI launch a token on April 13? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will USD.AI launch a token on April 27? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 3? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 8? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-677 | loss |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 7? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2,426 | loss |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-81 | loss |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$339 | win |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-326 | loss |
| Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 49% $-83,145
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | $-3,126 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 54¢ | 60¢ | +$1,595 | win |
| Lighter Airdrop before January 1? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$803 | win |
| Lighter FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | loss |
| Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Lighter Airdrop before January 1? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-489 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-573 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-307 | loss |
| Will the US strike Cuba next? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-4,444 | loss |
| Will the US strike another country first? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1,044 | loss |
Sports 53% $-88,284
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | Yes | -1¢ | 1¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-425 | loss |
| Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Will the Nashville Predators win the Western Conference? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Western Conference? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-101 | loss |
| Will Tre Johnson win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1,932 | loss |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings win the Atlantic Division? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Boston Bruins win the Atlantic Division? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 47% $-163,888
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-261 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$763 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-166 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$574 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$294 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-32,248 | loss |
| Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1,171 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$158 | $863 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$96 | $1,995 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$57 | $664 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $8,763 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $995 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $7,909 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $8,621 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $258 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-56 | $8,338 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-99 | $7,136 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-122 | $8,349 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1,310 | $8,470 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 60.6¢ | 100¢ | +$806 | $1,759 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 11.1¢ | 10¢ | +$616 | $203 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 38.2¢ | 0¢ | $-800 | $1,122 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 80.2¢ | 90¢ | +$2,329 | $19,525 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,998 | $4,990 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,212 | $4,115 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$864 | $835 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | Yes | 32.2¢ | 100¢ | +$802 | $434 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | +$440 | $140 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$277 | $5,235 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | +$195 | $889 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | $453 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 0¢ | +$123 | $219 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $207 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $394 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $96 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $39 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $61 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m | No | 50.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $603 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $196 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $99 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $40 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $57 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | $102 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | $203 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | $342 | 13/04/2026 |