Win rate
75.4%
285 W / 93 L
Total PnL
$-746
realized $-4,630 · unrealized $3,884
Portfolio
$3,884
volume $356,361
Predictions
442
3.8/day · avg $806
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 84% +$1,586
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $18M committed to the Space public sale? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | No | 12¢ | 16¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Mother Mary" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Normal" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Geopolitics 75% +$809
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$396 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$348 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Weather 100% +$34
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Sports 67% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Red Bull finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Elections 86% $-49
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-238 | loss |
| Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Economy 0% $-50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Tech 62% $-88
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | $-81 | loss |
| Will Amazon dip to $192 in February? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of February? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will ARC Raiders be the #1 searched game on Google this year? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
Politics 75% $-190
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 69¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 45¢ | 8¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 22) | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Newsom" or "Newscum" during the State of the Union address? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump say "Miracle" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 48% $-598
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-482 | loss |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | Yes | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | loss |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 8? | Yes | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
Culture 70% $-2,351
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 8¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $278 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | +$278 | $23 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | +$44 | $24 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $571 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $764 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $609 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $23 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $397 | 04/04/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$348 | $597 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 85.5¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $464 | 31/03/2026 |
| People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $152 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $209 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | $182 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%? | No | 77.0¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 81.7¢ | 100¢ | $-81 | $222 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 79 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 59.5¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $762 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? | No | 71.1¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $227 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $51 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 40.3¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | $161 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Fantasy Life" score at least 83 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 68.7¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $157 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 35.3¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $103 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $187 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 79 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 78.5¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $161 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Fantasy Life" score at least 86 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 81.7¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $90 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $82 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $305 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $200 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $340 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Fantasy Life" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $271 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $96 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 76 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $202 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 88 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $130 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $125 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Fantasy Life" score at least 89 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $203 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Fantasy Life" score at least 83 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 59.9¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | $90 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 76 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 57.1¢ | 0¢ | $-440 | $440 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m? | No | 62.4¢ | 0¢ | $-254 | $254 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 97 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $1,064 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 73.8¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $132 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | No | 53.1¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $437 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m? | No | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $200 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" score at least 79 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $389 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $293 | 23/03/2026 |