UranusProbe

Elections 55% +$460 $9,054 vol · 20 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	55¢	56¢	+$3	win
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	92¢	93¢	+$1	win
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	88¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	6¢	25¢	+$22	win
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	74¢	100¢	+$130	win
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?	No	69¢	6¢	$-49	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	25¢	1¢	$-281	loss

Other 51% +$358 $11,888 vol · 169 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	62¢	52¢	+$1	win
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	57¢	66¢	+$3	win
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	No	17¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	92¢	95¢	+$1	win
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	78¢	72¢	$-1	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	49¢	84¢	+$38	win
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	25¢	26¢	$-2	loss
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	72¢	60¢	$-6	loss
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	No	41¢	0¢	$-69	loss
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Sports 50% +$70 $9,438 vol · 146 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	41¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	92¢	91¢	$-5	loss
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$-0	loss
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	43¢	46¢	+$1	win
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees	Los Angeles Angels	67¢	100¢	+$22	win
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles	Arizona Diamondbacks	43¢	100¢	+$19	win
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	65¢	100¢	+$18	win
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics	Texas Rangers	55¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Chicago Cubs	90¢	100¢	+$5	win
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	86¢	100¢	+$2	win

Weather 73% +$48 $280 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025?	No	81¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 19?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 14?	No	93¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on August 12?	No	64¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on August 11?	No	60¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on August 9?	No	55¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on July 29?	Yes	58¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on July 28?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on July 8?	Yes	24¢	0¢	+$14	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on July 8?	No	85¢	100¢	+$0	win

Tech 50% +$32 $552 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$21	win
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?	Yes	85¢	92¢	$-2	loss
OpenAI browser in 2025?	No	10¢	0¢	+$6	win
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
OpenAI social app in 2025?	No	55¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?	Yes	97¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?	No	78¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?	No	94¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	63¢	62¢	$-1	loss

Economy 83% +$15 $1,123 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	70¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?	No	34¢	100¢	+$12	win

Mentions 100% +$6 $51 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	72¢	100¢	+$6	win

Finance 0% $-1 $20 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?	Yes	45¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Crypto 50% $-86 $820 vol · 28 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	92¢	100¢	+$1	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	82¢	78¢	$-1	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	95¢	98¢	+$1	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 15?	No	63¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13?	No	64¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August?	No	21¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 7PM ET	Down	59¢	100¢	+$5	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8PM ET	Up	60¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10PM ET	Down	64¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 7PM ET	Up	71¢	100¢	+$8	win

Politics 56% $-192 $4,504 vol · 86 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	58¢	61¢	+$2	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	No	65¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$-2	loss
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?	No	90¢	98¢	$-10	loss
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	93¢	52¢	$-66	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	93¢	80¢	$-10	loss
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	12¢	17¢	+$4	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	84¢	54¢	+$16	win

Culture 50% $-824 $1,109 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?	No	91¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	82¢	0¢	$-65	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	No	81¢	0¢	$-752	loss
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	30¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?	No	95¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Taylor Swift say "Album" 5+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?	No	22¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $100-108m?	No	90¢	100¢	$-9	loss

Esports 47% $-975 $2,967 vol · 36 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner	Hanwha Life Esports	82¢	100¢	+$37	win
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B	FURIA	84¢	100¢	+$3	win
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner	SU Esports	75¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner	ARCRED	51¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner	Bebop	26¢	0¢	$-32	loss
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Bilibili Gaming	79¢	0¢	$-784	loss
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan: Playoffs	Fennel	60¢	100¢	+$30	win
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner	Natus Vincere	75¢	100¢	+$10	win
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner	Aurora Gaming	84¢	100¢	+$5	win
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B	B8	60¢	100¢	+$5	win

Geopolitics 59% $-2,246 $19,666 vol · 85 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	91¢	91¢	+$0	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	37¢	32¢	$-7	loss
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	88¢	88¢	+$0	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	32¢	30¢	+$18	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	93¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	No	94¢	96¢	+$0	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	94¢	97¢	+$1	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$-5	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	82¢	78¢	$-25	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	94¢	97¢	+$2	win