Win rate
55.5%
111 W / 89 L
Total PnL
$102,803
realized $-212,377 · unrealized $315,179
Portfolio
$315,179
volume $3,499,712
Predictions
207
4.2/day · avg $16,907
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 59% +$84,445
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$11,026 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-8,391 | loss |
| Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 68¢ | $-4,120 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 70¢ | 91¢ | $-923 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-1,507 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-6,986 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$18,934 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 80¢ | 78¢ | $-2,022 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | No | 80¢ | 89¢ | +$2 | win |
Culture 46% +$12,598
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$6,326 | win |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-204 | loss |
| Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-5,185 | loss |
| Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | +$1,620 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$622 | win |
| Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-585 | loss |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$535 | win |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-727 | loss |
Politics 80% +$1,549
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 69¢ | 70¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-599 | loss |
| UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$750 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$482 | win |
| Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$400 | win |
| Will Blue Moon be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 59% +$1,105
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$558 | win |
| Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? | Yes | 78¢ | 81¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Laurence Louie win Top Chef Season 23? | No | 91¢ | 89¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 27¢ | 24¢ | $-375 | loss |
| Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-610 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$3,270 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 70¢ | 98¢ | +$110 | win |
Sports 35% +$173
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference? | No | 70¢ | 74¢ | +$499 | win |
| NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars | Wild | 49¢ | 56¢ | +$69 | win |
| Rangers vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 | Over | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | loss |
| Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5 | Over | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-245 | loss |
| Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-864 | loss |
| Devils vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5 | Over | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-470 | loss |
| Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-249 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$989 | win |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$350 | win |
| Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$300 | win |
Elections 67% $-154
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | No | 50¢ | 66¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 5¢ | $-194 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 66¢ | +$38 | win |
Weather 43% $-445
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils | St. Johns Red Storm | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-840 | loss |
| Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5) | St. Johns Red Storm | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-255 | loss |
| Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Miami Hurricanes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | loss |
| Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-10.5) | St. Johns Red Storm | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$196 | win |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | Missouri Tigers | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-345 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 77.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,485 | $8,747 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 84¢ | +$1,616 | $10,655 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $82 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $120 | 13/04/2026 |
| Rangers vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 | Over | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | $93 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 40.7¢ | 0¢ | $-610 | $610 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 70.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,270 | $21,050 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 69.8¢ | 98¢ | +$110 | $17,450 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | $-81 | $2,615 | 10/04/2026 |
| Capitals vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5 | Over | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-245 | $245 | 08/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 72.1¢ | 84¢ | +$3,368 | $20,507 | 07/04/2026 |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | Arizona Wildcats | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-470 | $470 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 14.4¢ | 0¢ | $-864 | $864 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | $405 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | $315 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $830 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | $230 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation? | No | 71.4¢ | 0¢ | $-599 | $599 | 01/04/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$16,428 | $86,274 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10,333 | $76,903 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | +$325 | $3,350 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | $706 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 51.3¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $1,764 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $7,745 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 44.4¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $1,695 | 31/03/2026 |
| Devils vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5 | Over | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-470 | $470 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 48.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1,526 | $9,492 | 31/03/2026 |
| Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) | Arizona Wildcats | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$529 | $470 | 29/03/2026 |
| Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) | Michigan Wolverines | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | $260 | 29/03/2026 |
| Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5) | Illinois Fighting Illini | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$344 | $306 | 28/03/2026 |
| Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5) | Illinois Fighting Illini | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $171 | 28/03/2026 |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | Michigan State Spartans | 47.2¢ | 0¢ | $-1,180 | $1,180 | 28/03/2026 |
| Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) | Arizona Wildcats | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$460 | $540 | 27/03/2026 |
| Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5) | Alabama Crimson Tide | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-460 | $460 | 27/03/2026 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines | Alabama Crimson Tide | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-570 | $570 | 27/03/2026 |
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils | St. Johns Red Storm | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-840 | $840 | 27/03/2026 |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | $563 | 26/03/2026 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats | Arizona Wildcats | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $151 | 26/03/2026 |
| Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-8.5) | Purdue Boilermakers | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-490 | $490 | 26/03/2026 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-580 | $580 | 26/03/2026 |
| Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) | Connecticut Huskies | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$500 | $500 | 23/03/2026 |
| Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5) | Alabama Crimson Tide | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$550 | $450 | 22/03/2026 |
| Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats | Arizona Wildcats | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$420 | $2,580 | 22/03/2026 |
| UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies | Connecticut Huskies | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$350 | $650 | 22/03/2026 |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers | Tennessee Volunteers | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | $260 | 22/03/2026 |
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks | St. Johns Red Storm | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$199 | $311 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-5.5) | Iowa State Cyclones | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $480 | 22/03/2026 |
| Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Miami Hurricanes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5) | St. Johns Red Storm | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-255 | $255 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-12.5) | Arizona Wildcats | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-450 | $450 | 22/03/2026 |