Win rate
55.4%
36 W / 29 L
Total PnL
$1,805
realized $-908 · unrealized $2,714
Portfolio
$2,714
volume $65,522
Predictions
118
5.4/day · avg $555
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 59% +$1,866
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 82¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$134 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 74¢ | 94¢ | +$67 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-340 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 22¢ | 6¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 74¢ | 74¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | win |
Politics 50% +$209
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 42¢ | 42¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Tech 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Elections 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 50% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 75% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 41¢ | 40¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 20% $-6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 0% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 56¢ | 52¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 61¢ | 48¢ | $-9 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 29.3¢ | 100¢ | +$423 | $609 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 87.1¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $156 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $177 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $152 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 65.8¢ | 91¢ | +$34 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $63 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | $141 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 14.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,645 | $381 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 58.3¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $216 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 31.2¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | $54 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 69.9¢ | 0¢ | $-276 | $290 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 48.6¢ | 92¢ | +$519 | $1,064 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 54.9¢ | 8¢ | $-186 | $219 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $200 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 17.5¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | $1,029 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $221 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 71.1¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 24.6¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | No | 56.4¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | $73 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $150 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 07/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 26.7¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $217 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 67.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $89 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $124 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | Yes | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $82 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $113 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-116 | $164 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 24.2¢ | 44¢ | +$118 | $367 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $22 | 29/04/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | Yes | 24.2¢ | 3¢ | $-27 | $31 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 42.0¢ | 42¢ | +$1 | $49 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 41.0¢ | 40¢ | $-12 | $383 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 93.1¢ | 99¢ | +$30 | $775 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 85.1¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | $316 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $2,299 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 70.9¢ | 57¢ | $-7 | $63 | 30/04/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 74.0¢ | 74¢ | $-0 | $29 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 60.5¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $27 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $120 | 31/05/2026 |