Win rate
68.0%
204 W / 96 L
Total PnL
$1,468
realized $-4,435 · unrealized $5,903
Portfolio
$5,903
volume $399,408
Predictions
1,845
38.0/day · avg $216
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 77% +$1,965
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 59¢ | 78¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 70¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 85% +$956
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 39¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 26¢ | 48¢ | +$31 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 55¢ | 99¢ | +$34 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Culture 100% +$51
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Esports 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D | CarritoSpain | 50¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | — |
Crypto 37% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 67¢ | 60¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | Up | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11AM ET | Up | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12PM ET | Up | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET | Up | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3PM ET | Up | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
Tech 50% $-19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Sports 43% $-40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Galions Sharks vs French Flair (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs | French Flair | 50¢ | 50¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) | Bucks | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5 | Over | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) | Cavaliers | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5 | Under | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
Elections 0% $-42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Other 63% $-186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? | No | 78¢ | 94¢ | +$9 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Yes | 49¢ | 48¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 69¢ | 46¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | Yes | 54¢ | 48¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$199 | $2,532 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 71.3¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $1,012 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 23.7¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $604 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $846 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $58 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $127 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,316 | $1,331 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $269 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 90¢ | +$37 | $201 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 30.3¢ | 10¢ | +$4 | $74 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $458 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $337 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 80.9¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $145 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $72 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$198 | $2,200 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $968 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 6.2¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $39 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 69.5¢ | 0¢ | $-267 | $315 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 90¢ | +$398 | $2,819 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 32.7¢ | 10¢ | $-316 | $820 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $51 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $21 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $36 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 84.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $28 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 38.1¢ | 100¢ | +$334 | $207 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 13.7¢ | 100¢ | +$191 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | $808 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 18.6¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $514 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 75.4¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $463 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $393 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 49.4¢ | 50¢ | +$18 | $250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $391 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $235 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $248 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? | No | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $117 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $244 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $212 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |