Win rate
51.3%
240 W / 228 L
Total PnL
$17,695
realized $9,247 · unrealized $8,447
Portfolio
$8,447
volume $540,528
Predictions
453
3.1/day · avg $1,193
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/01/2022 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 50% +$7,084
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | No | 65¢ | 64¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 48¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | Yes | 66¢ | 56¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? | Yes | 44¢ | 53¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? | No | 29¢ | 18¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 38¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? | No | 77¢ | 79¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 51% +$4,447
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 73¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24¢ | 27¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | win |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 45¢ | 41¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? | No | 78¢ | 72¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026? | No | 37¢ | 40¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 90¢ | +$35 | win |
| Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026? | No | 69¢ | 69¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? | Yes | 70¢ | 72¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 67% +$1,596
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$1,042 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$226 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| BOA launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| US national XRP reserve in 2025? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-82 | loss |
Elections 54% +$670
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat? | Yes | 3¢ | 7¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will the Republican Party win the OR-02 House seat? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MN-03 House seat? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat? | Yes | 74¢ | 78¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat? | Yes | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-03 House seat? | Yes | 88¢ | 87¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? | Yes | 84¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat? | Yes | 72¢ | 71¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat? | Yes | 21¢ | 24¢ | +$7 | win |
Geopolitics 61% +$624
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 78¢ | +$16 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 37¢ | 24¢ | $-16 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | win |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
| Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | win |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass? | No | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
Tech 67% +$156
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 74¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| OpenAI social app in 2025? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-558 | loss |
| Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | win |
| Will Nvidia CEO say "Microsoft" during earnings call today? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$232 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
Weather 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 19 or more named storms during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Finance 33% $-171
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-161 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will U.S. 30 year Treasury bond yield close above 3% on August 19, 2022? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
Economy 17% $-267
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-334 | loss |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$335 | win |
| Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-216 | loss |
| U.S. Recession in 2024? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 75 bps after its December meeting? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 75 bps after their September meeting? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Culture 33% $-274
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Travis Scott release an album in 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 51¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Rihanna release an album in 2025? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-325 | loss |
Sports 0% $-594
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? | No | 91¢ | 87¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Real Sociedad win Copa Del Rey? | No | 70¢ | 62¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-413 | loss |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.5% from September to October 2022? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.0% from July to August 2022? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-134 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Sociedad win Copa Del Rey? | No | 70.0¢ | 62¢ | $-5 | $46 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $34 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 58.5¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | $254 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 20¢ | +$525 | $191 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 31.0¢ | 80¢ | +$204 | $186 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | No | 19.0¢ | 18¢ | $-1 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 28/02/2026 |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 43.4¢ | 0¢ | $-334 | $516 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $34 | 31/01/2026 |
| Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? | No | 56.8¢ | 0¢ | $-413 | $413 | 31/01/2026 |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | No | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$335 | $437 | 30/01/2026 |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year? | Yes | 22.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,055 | $311 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 50.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,042 | $1,112 | 31/12/2025 |
| Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$683 | $538 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? | Yes | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$605 | $1,667 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | No | 73.1¢ | 100¢ | +$558 | $1,513 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Elon register the America Party in 2025? | No | 42.6¢ | 100¢ | +$525 | $390 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will France recognize Palestine in 2025? | Yes | 15.1¢ | 100¢ | +$483 | $86 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | No | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$447 | $2,433 | 31/12/2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? | No | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$354 | $1,341 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$266 | $820 | 31/12/2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 60.6¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | $391 | 31/12/2025 |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Yes | 39.2¢ | 0¢ | +$226 | $392 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? | Yes | 67.9¢ | 100¢ | +$198 | $475 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025? | No | 65.2¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | $314 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will next reconciliation bill end taxes on tips in 2025? | Yes | 69.1¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | $510 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2025? | No | 76.9¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | $900 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025? | No | 51.4¢ | 100¢ | +$142 | $401 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? | Yes | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | +$111 | $129 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Rihanna release an album in 2025? | No | 62.9¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $176 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? | No | 63.2¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $543 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $544 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $191 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$86 | $37 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | No | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $350 | 31/12/2025 |
| BOA launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? | No | 59.1¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $119 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$80 | $54 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | $30 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $56 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025? | Yes | 64.9¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $187 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will next reconciliation bill end taxes on tips in 2025? | No | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | +$60 | $27 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? | No | 47.3¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $52 | 31/12/2025 |
| Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $253 | 31/12/2025 |
| US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? | No | 63.8¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $87 | 31/12/2025 |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025? | No | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $151 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $299 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025? | No | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $193 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $292 | 31/12/2025 |