Win rate
79.7%
376 W / 96 L
Total PnL
$7,708
realized $-13,632 · unrealized $21,340
Portfolio
$21,340
volume $867,161
Predictions
521
5.7/day · avg $1,664
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 75% +$4,073
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 59¢ | 24¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Over $2M committed to the Foresee public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Over $5M committed to the Sol Raffle public sale? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Space FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 90¢ | 88¢ | +$4 | win |
| Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 95% +$1,238
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocco Jamieson win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kira Kimura win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Seungeun Yu (KOR) win the gold medal for Snowboard Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Hunter Hess (USA) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Anna Boersma (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Birk Ruud (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Julia Taubitz (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Luge - Women's Singles at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Kristers Aparjods (LAT) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Luge - Men's Singles at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Zuyang Wang (CHN) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elina Ieva Bota (LAT) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Luge - Women's Singles at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Esports 100% +$766
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) | PARIVISION | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$766 | win |
Elections 70% +$486
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | $-4,628 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$4,628 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Team Mirai loose any seats in Japanese snap election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-670 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Culture 97% +$294
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stellan Skarsgard win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Ellen Pompeo win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "The Smashing Machine" win Best Make Up & Hair at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "No Other Choice" win in the Non-English Language Film category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "22+1" win Best British Short Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Frankenstein" win Best Casting at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Tron: Ares" win Best Special Visual Effects at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "Little Amelie" win in the Children's & Family Film category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" win Best Sound at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will "Ovary-Acting" win Best British Short Animation at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Politics 79% +$286
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$187 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump post "Terrorist" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will "Biden" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "Donald" or "Trump" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 15) | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press briefing? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Finance 50% +$207
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Yes | 86¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 5¢ | 12¢ | +$101 | win |
Geopolitics 85% +$174
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 30¢ | +$8 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 79¢ | 72¢ | $-10 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Too late" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Tech 61% +$126
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 40¢ | +$4 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Economy 100% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Crypto 63% $-175
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 82¢ | 51¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$146 | win |
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-499 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15) | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 680k+ BTC by January 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 45% $-275
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CZ post 200+ posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | Yes | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-148 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-379 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $54 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Too late" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $84 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will "House Tour" get 15 million or more views in the first week? | No | 44.5¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $131 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | Yes | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $60 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Chocolate" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $165 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "War" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $61 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $350 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribers" during his next video? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $260 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next video? | Yes | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $153 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$146 | $102 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $120 | 09/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,990 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 64.3¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $39 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Terrorist" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $183 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $488 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Dario" or "Amodei" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $421 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "China" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $328 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $298 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Department of War" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $184 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 62.1¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | $78 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $35 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Lyon Farrell win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $427 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Kira Kimura win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Valentino Guseli win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $291 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "War" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $79 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Dane Menzies win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $165 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Oliver Martin win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $165 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Taiga Hasegawa win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $105 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Rocco Jamieson win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Snowboard Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $153 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | $-499 | $2,220 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$849 | $1,567 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | Yes | 51.5¢ | 100¢ | +$749 | $796 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$360 | $8,500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by March 31? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | $2,115 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 477 Million subscribers by March 31? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$173 | $487 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | $378 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $460 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $1,037 | 31/03/2026 |
| 100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $352 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $5,901 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by February 28? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $16,605 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $24,975 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by February 7? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $13,471 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $7,020 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $986 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 107.5 billion views by March 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $11,580 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $294 | 31/03/2026 |