Win rate
45.4%
74 W / 89 L
Total PnL
$-15,501
realized $-16,139 · unrealized $638
Portfolio
$638
volume $1,053,879
Predictions
195
3.9/day · avg $5,405
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 67% +$212
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 92¢ | 82¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 7¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 16, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The Netherlands by Feburary 1? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Crypto 75% +$147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Up | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Up | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | Up | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | loss |
Sports 45% +$36
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Grizzlies vs. Pistons | Pistons | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Timberwolves | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| Hornets vs. Pacers | Hornets | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$285 | win |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | 49ers | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Bills | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-154 | loss |
| Bears vs. 49ers | 49ers | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Eagles vs. Bills | Eagles | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Ravens vs. Packers | Packers | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Economy 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Tech 0% $-20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
Finance 0% $-62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
Elections 0% $-138
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | loss |
Other 41% $-1,872
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 68¢ | 84¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 34¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? | Yes | 50¢ | 32¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| AWS service disrupted by April 30? | Yes | 46¢ | 28¢ | $-5 | loss |
Geopolitics 50% $-13,453
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-4,224 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-3,993 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$936 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 7, 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 59¢ | +$19 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 16, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $92 | 16/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 16.3¢ | 100¢ | $-1,086 | $1,716 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 35.3¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $85 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | +$195 | $105 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $66 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $52 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $69 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | +$84 | $128 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | $-108 | $502 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | $219 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $971 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | $-295 | $14,462 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $154 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 17.4¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $140 | 05/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Up | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $102 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Up | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $80 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $51 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? | Yes | 30.7¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $42 | 04/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | Up | 28.5¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | $57 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 59.1¢ | 0¢ | $-239 | $419 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $117 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 63.1¢ | 100¢ | +$924 | $3,143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 33.6¢ | 0¢ | +$580 | $933 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | +$461 | $1,317 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 0¢ | +$243 | $742 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Yes | 16.9¢ | 0¢ | +$76 | $414 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $390 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 68.4¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $89 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $932 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $1,222 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | $223 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | Yes | 8.1¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | $243 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Yes | 14.4¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $197 | 31/03/2026 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $-373 | $1,226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 40.8¢ | 0¢ | $-409 | $1,064 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-817 | $845 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $-1,250 | $1,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | Yes | 46.3¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | 27.3¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | $313 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | No | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $92 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | 56.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,471 | $1,723 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $105 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-21? | No | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-21? | Yes | 35.7¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | $192 | 21/03/2026 |