Win rate
72.7%
157 W / 59 L
Total PnL
$12,859
realized $3,958 · unrealized $8,901
Portfolio
$8,901
volume $358,433
Predictions
218
4.2/day · avg $1,644
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Weather 64% +$3,329
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$508 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$426 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-379 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$589 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-116 | loss |
Other 74% +$3,127
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | No | 50¢ | 97¢ | +$132 | win |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | 52¢ | 66¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | Yes | 37¢ | 66¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | No | 48¢ | 34¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | No | 59¢ | 34¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$21 | win |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | Yes | 23¢ | 10¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Aston Villa qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? | Yes | 75¢ | 88¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Chelsea qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? | No | 46¢ | 70¢ | +$65 | win |
| Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
Politics 90% +$2,834
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? | No | 67¢ | 86¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 85¢ | +$226 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 72¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? | No | 48¢ | 58¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | Yes | 27¢ | 30¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 67¢ | 72¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 72¢ | 1¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? | Yes | 27¢ | 12¢ | $-651 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$279 | win |
| Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
Elections 76% +$1,773
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 54¢ | 64¢ | +$495 | win |
| Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | Yes | 7¢ | 12¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | No | 68¢ | 68¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Yes | 24¢ | 36¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | No | 42¢ | 50¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will CDA win 25–27 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 22 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Another Canada election called by June 30? | No | 54¢ | 96¢ | +$75 | win |
Tech 89% +$1,174
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 74¢ | +$2 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Yes | 32¢ | 26¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? | No | 40¢ | 64¢ | +$289 | win |
| Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$447 | win |
| Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$231 | win |
| Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year? | No | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
Geopolitics 57% +$646
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 65¢ | 33¢ | +$75 | win |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 94¢ | +$745 | win |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 39¢ | 94¢ | +$164 | win |
| Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will UEFA ban or suspend Israel by October 31? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-311 | loss |
| Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
Sports 67% +$81
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the winner of the Bosnia and Herzegovina/Italy/Northern Ireland/Wales playoff win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$149 | win |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 47¢ | 52¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the winner of the Czechia/Denmark/North Macedonia/Republic of Ireland playoff win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 50¢ | 48¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the 2025 MLB World Series have more than 15 million viewers | Yes | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the 2025 MLB World Series have more than 15 million viewers | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | loss |
| Will Rodrygo Silva de Goes sign with a new club during the transfer window? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will Alexander Isak sign with a new club during the transfer window? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
Finance 55% $-17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call? | No | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | win |
| Will Snowflake say "Iceberg" during earnings call? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Disney say "YouTube TV" during earnings call? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will Disney say "Abu Dhabi" during earnings call? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | loss |
| Will Uber say "Regulator / Regulation" during earnings call? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-619 | loss |
| Will Hims say "Collaboration" during earnings call? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | win |
| Will Palantir say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 56.4¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $1,571 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 17.7¢ | 100¢ | +$320 | $69 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 69.1¢ | 0¢ | +$136 | $1,114 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | $402 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $280 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 70.7¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $357 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 17.3¢ | 0¢ | +$134 | $351 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 14.8¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $28 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $78 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 72.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $159 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $141 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3? | Yes | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? | Yes | 43.6¢ | 0¢ | +$209 | $411 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 62.1¢ | 0¢ | +$104 | $439 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 76.8¢ | 0¢ | +$53 | $263 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | Yes | 62.9¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $258 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 16.1¢ | 0¢ | $-379 | $581 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Megaquake by March 31? | Yes | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | 38.6¢ | 0¢ | +$49 | $1,339 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | No | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $171 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | No | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $27 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | 21.8¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $781 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $89 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | No | 34.2¢ | 100¢ | +$589 | $735 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $591 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? | No | 72.1¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $130 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? | Yes | 18.2¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $197 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars? | No | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | No | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | $-116 | $169 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $1,577 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? | Yes | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | $2,229 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? | No | 37.3¢ | 0¢ | +$90 | $330 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? | Yes | 26.7¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $156 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | $168 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | No | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | $200 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | No | 24.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $120 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15? | No | 10.9¢ | 0¢ | +$841 | $296 | 15/02/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8? | No | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | $112 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1? | No | 21.9¢ | 0¢ | $-307 | $430 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $145 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Yes | 53.3¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | $532 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | No | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $187 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18? | No | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $104 | 18/01/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11? | No | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 11/01/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28? | No | 35.9¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $51 | 05/01/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4? | No | 21.0¢ | 100¢ | +$393 | $105 | 04/01/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 04/01/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4? | No | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | $207 | 04/01/2026 |