Win rate
75.1%
1800 W / 598 L
Total PnL
$99,197
realized $-11,490 · unrealized $110,687
Portfolio
$110,687
volume $90,603,109
Predictions
5,440
14.8/day · avg $16,655
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/08/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 75% +$78,322
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$3,067 | win |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win more than 75.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | O 75.5 | 49¢ | 82¢ | +$77 | win |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 70¢ | 93¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | +$616 | win |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 57¢ | 54¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ausar Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | loss |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-266 | loss |
Other 75% +$42,320
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$258 | win |
| Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | win |
| Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-1,817 | loss |
| Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? | No | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 16¢ | 82¢ | +$144 | win |
| Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-1,246 | loss |
| Lighter Airdrop on January 7? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
Elections 80% +$38,916
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 13¢ | 17¢ | +$69 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$124 | win |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$296 | win |
| Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,891 | win |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$380 | win |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$134 | win |
Politics 66% +$21,225
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 44¢ | 61¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-624 | loss |
| Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | win |
| Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday? | No | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | win |
| Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 12¢ | 100¢ | +$728 | win |
| Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-1,074 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Golden Age" while addressing the nation on December 17? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$133 | win |
Geopolitics 78% +$5,485
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$312 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$38 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$976 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-539 | loss |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | +$182 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | win |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | win |
Culture 74% +$3,991
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$1,028 | win |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 137m and 150m? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | +$2,071 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$1,294 | win |
| Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 93m? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$256 | win |
| Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m? | No | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 129m and 143m? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | loss |
Weather 100% +$2,849
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 15? | Yes | 13¢ | 100¢ | +$174 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 14? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? | Yes | 9¢ | 100¢ | +$363 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 13? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12? | Yes | 15¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 6? | No | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$307 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$218 | win |
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks | St. Johns Red Storm | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$177 | win |
| Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$1,066 | win |
Crypto 83% +$1,828
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$1,740 | win |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | win |
| Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Florida A&M Rattlers | Florida A&M Rattlers | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET | Down | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Down | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET | Down | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | Up | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET | Up | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET | Down | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
Esports 100% +$144
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 | Under | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5 | Under | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 209.5 | Over | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
Tech 50% $-16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | Yes | 62¢ | 70¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Finance 60% $-607
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-593 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in April? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Will Kraken IPO in 2024? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
Economy 57% $-19,843
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-670 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 16¢ | 8¢ | $-1,321 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$398 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-4,254 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Mississippi State vs. Florida Gators | Florida Gators | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Tennessee vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | win |
| Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippi | Southern Mississippi | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the Columbus Blue Jackets make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 33.8¢ | 100¢ | +$631 | $775 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Florida Panthers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 33.8¢ | 100¢ | +$516 | $336 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 16.7¢ | 100¢ | +$387 | $145 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 46.2¢ | 100¢ | +$279 | $421 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | $359 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 32.1¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | $142 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 60.1¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | $222 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 53.4¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $444 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 48.7¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $194 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $391 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New Jersey Devils make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 73.8¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $236 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 62.4¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $138 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the St. Louis Blues make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $94 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Washington Capitals make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $45 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Islanders make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 39.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $449 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Washington Capitals make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 19.4¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $129 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 24.9¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $62 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $-143 | $183 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 23.6¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | $565 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 22.2¢ | 0¢ | $-179 | $179 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 48.7¢ | 0¢ | $-195 | $195 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $-215 | $215 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | $-229 | $441 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 27.2¢ | 0¢ | $-485 | $645 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 41.6¢ | 0¢ | $-753 | $1,502 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Chicago Blackhawks make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,081 | $1,139 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,122 | $1,172 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 23.4¢ | 100¢ | +$374 | $455 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Trail Blazers | 42.7¢ | 100¢ | +$344 | $256 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | 76ers | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | $265 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 15? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 100¢ | +$174 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 14? | Yes | 20.4¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | $41 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? | Yes | 9.2¢ | 100¢ | +$363 | $37 | 13/04/2026 |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | Nuggets | 23.0¢ | 100¢ | +$192 | $58 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 13? | Yes | 19.6¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | $39 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 26.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,650 | $1,810 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 26.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,041 | $947 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 22.3¢ | 100¢ | +$834 | $279 | 12/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. Celtics | Celtics | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | +$378 | $72 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | No | 43.3¢ | 100¢ | +$350 | $283 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Houston Rockets win more than 52.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | No | 48.8¢ | 100¢ | +$349 | $350 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20.8¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $104 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 22.5¢ | 100¢ | +$225 | $436 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win more than 19.5 regular season games in 2025–26? | Yes | 57.5¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $364 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | $184 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 37.3¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | $112 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21.9¢ | 0¢ | +$156 | $261 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12? | Yes | 15.5¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |