Win rate
46.2%
722 W / 841 L
Total PnL
$134,566
realized $38,045 · unrealized $96,521
Portfolio
$96,521
volume $14,728,402
Predictions
1,470
12.6/day · avg $10,019
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 47% +$53,650
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-5,156 | loss |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-347 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,499 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? | No | 60¢ | 1¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 99¢ | +$769 | win |
Geopolitics 52% +$35,066
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$4,599 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-5,751 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$302 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 70¢ | +$34 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-11,425 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 30¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-543 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-1,086 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-7,441 | loss |
Other 47% +$30,508
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Yes | 11¢ | 2¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$4,076 | win |
| Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-244 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | +$4,607 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-363 | loss |
Sports 45% +$8,433
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-173 | loss |
| Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-4,597 | loss |
| Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-258 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-698 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-1,080 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-4,355 | loss |
| Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-1,265 | loss |
| Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? | No | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$1,724 | win |
Elections 39% +$6,530
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 58¢ | 64¢ | +$313 | win |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 49¢ | 39¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 70¢ | 64¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-828 | loss |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-413 | loss |
| Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-156 | loss |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 38¢ | 36¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
Tech 56% +$4,620
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | No | 68¢ | 34¢ | $-28 | loss |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$5,266 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$511 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-494 | loss |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-1,372 | loss |
Esports 67% +$2,050
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) | G2 Esports | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$340 | win |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) | Anyones Legend | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$2,175 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) | G2 Esports | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-465 | loss |
Mentions 39% +$620
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$225 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will the new Pope tweet from his personal account this month? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$428 | win |
| Will the new Pope tweet from his personal account this month? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-386 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
Weather 0% $-162
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | loss |
Economy 32% $-230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before July? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$227 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-451 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Finance 50% $-719
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 5¢ | $-492 | loss |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 18? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-398 | loss |
| Will Bath & Body Works (BBWI) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Lowe's Companies (LOW) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$226 | win |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 40% $-8,616
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$976 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$764 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$260 | win |
| Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-700 | loss |
| Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | win |
| Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | loss |
Crypto 41% $-9,740
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Rocky Mount visit? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET | Up | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$892 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET | Up | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Down | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$91 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | Down | 38¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | Up | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET | Down | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Solana Up or Down - January 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET | Up | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $516 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-606 | $606 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Great Big Beautiful Bill" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | No | 32.2¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $36 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4,276 | $4,836 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$327 | $10,533 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1,028 | $351 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,854 | $1,790 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4,960 | $10,570 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | +$67 | $54 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4,591 | $4,591 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$330 | $170 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? | No | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | $105 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Make a Deal" during Monday news conference? | No | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-276 | $276 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation? | No | 69.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,839 | $4,260 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | No | 67.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,757 | $3,686 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,424 | $672 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 62.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,298 | $2,130 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? | No | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | +$908 | $2,970 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | No | 7.2¢ | 100¢ | +$766 | $315 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 30.1¢ | 100¢ | +$559 | $241 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$484 | $16,516 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | No | 20.3¢ | 0¢ | +$338 | $524 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 46.8¢ | 100¢ | +$308 | $271 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $140 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? | No | 10.4¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $101 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | $-525 | $1,387 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 44.3¢ | 0¢ | $-610 | $610 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | No | 22.1¢ | 0¢ | $-886 | $886 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$2,657 | $2,007 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 37.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2,602 | $19,007 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,021 | $7,653 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | +$1,710 | $4,715 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? | Yes | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1,122 | $961 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,004 | $3,805 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Third term" in March? | No | 26.2¢ | 100¢ | +$952 | $1,048 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$848 | $47,560 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$784 | $5,440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$571 | $4,093 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | +$508 | $234 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Yes | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | +$418 | $1,310 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Yes | 29.9¢ | 0¢ | +$387 | $2,781 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 37.1¢ | 0¢ | +$320 | $928 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | +$318 | $2,810 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 35.3¢ | 100¢ | +$259 | $1,404 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $1,216 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $6,534 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | Yes | 32.6¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |