TonyBeetZ

Geopolitics 69% +$751 $9,658 vol · 149 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	71¢	70¢	+$19	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	74¢	84¢	+$7	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	40¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	65¢	31¢	+$4	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	83¢	91¢	+$3	win
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	87¢	90¢	+$4	win
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	No	88¢	96¢	+$4	win
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	72¢	72¢	+$0	win

Sports 61% +$514 $3,017 vol · 97 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	94¢	88¢	+$0	win
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-9	loss
LoL: Sentinels vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs	LYON	75¢	100¢	+$7	win
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs	BNK FEARX	47¢	100¢	+$45	win
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs	Karmine Corp	64¢	100¢	+$28	win
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	78¢	100¢	+$6	win
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	JD Gaming	26¢	100¢	+$103	win
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Deep Cross Gaming	42¢	0¢	$-31	loss
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Invictus Gaming	30¢	0¢	$-51	loss
Thunder vs. Raptors	Raptors	55¢	0¢	$-58	loss

Politics 67% +$290 $3,199 vol · 55 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$11	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	71¢	84¢	+$9	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	90¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	90¢	90¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$-1	loss
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	56¢	49¢	$-7	loss
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	96¢	96¢	+$1	win
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	97¢	100¢	$-4	loss

Crypto 86% +$60 $611 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$0	win
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	93¢	94¢	+$9	win
Will Hegseth say "Game" during press conference?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	No	85¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-16	loss

Economy 100% +$14 $67 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?	No	61¢	100¢	+$12	win

Tech 62% $-17 $228 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	46¢	82¢	$-2	loss
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$3	win
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	48¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?	No	33¢	0¢	$-18	loss

Weather 75% $-29 $204 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	72¢	81¢	+$5	win
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?	No	89¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on January 6?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
St. John's Red Storm vs. Iowa State Cyclones	St. Johns Red Storm	33¢	0¢	$-42	loss

Finance 56% $-42 $310 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?	Up	33¢	100¢	$-6	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?	Up	52¢	0¢	$-8	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?	Down	62¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$2	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?	Up	55¢	0¢	+$1	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25?	Up	83¢	100¢	+$3	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19?	Down	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17?	Down	90¢	100¢	+$5	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13?	Down	83¢	0¢	$-12	loss

Elections 57% $-53 $1,113 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	59¢	62¢	+$4	win
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	59¢	60¢	+$1	win
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	78¢	84¢	+$3	win
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	81¢	84¢	+$1	win
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	54¢	52¢	$-1	loss
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$-1	loss
Another Canada election called by June 30?	No	68¢	95¢	$-1	loss
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	88¢	92¢	+$2	win
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	83¢	80¢	$-1	loss
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	74¢	82¢	+$3	win

Esports 50% $-89 $1,582 vol · 50 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner	Tundra Esports	63¢	100¢	+$13	win
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs	Karmine Corp	41¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	MOUZ	37¢	0¢	$-18	loss
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Top Esports	52¢	0¢	$-56	loss
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs	MOUZ	65¢	100¢	+$22	win
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs	FURIA Esports	68¢	100¢	+$16	win
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs	TheMongolz	59¢	100¢	+$21	win
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs	PARIVISION	49¢	100¢	+$48	win
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs	MOUZ	65¢	100¢	+$28	win
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner	Team Falcons	68¢	0¢	$-34	loss

Other 54% $-132 $8,710 vol · 195 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	78¢	69¢	$-4	loss
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	75¢	72¢	$-1	loss
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	8¢	0¢	$-54	loss
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	19¢	0¢	$-11	loss
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	69¢	100¢	+$16	win
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$5	win
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?	No	76¢	100¢	+$5	win
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?	No	66¢	100¢	+$5	win

Culture 38% $-146 $1,058 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?	No	92¢	92¢	$-0	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	49¢	100¢	+$55	win
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	70¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-89	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	No	56¢	100¢	$-11	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	41¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 42m?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-42	loss