Win rate
58.9%
53 W / 37 L
Total PnL
$-76,229
realized $-118,152 · unrealized $41,923
Portfolio
$41,923
volume $1,947,368
Predictions
109
2.1/day · avg $17,866
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 53% +$6,256
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$80 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$3,104 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 44¢ | 49¢ | $-184 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$187 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Trump announces military action against Iran durring SOTU? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
Other 64% +$1,388
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 20¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 8¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | 57¢ | 66¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$216 | win |
| Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$769 | win |
| Prince Andrew charged by March 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | win |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Elections 14% $-1,377
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 20¢ | 19¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $-1,323 | loss |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 44¢ | 34¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 19¢ | 16¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 61¢ | 46¢ | $-5 | loss |
Geopolitics 65% $-82,449
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 30¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 60¢ | 24¢ | $-251 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 84¢ | $-451 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | $-683 | loss |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 80¢ | +$55 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 35¢ | 78¢ | $-382 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 94¢ | +$2,991 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$51 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$216 | $3,410 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 77.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8,350 | $101,113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31? | Yes | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$769 | $10,190 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 92¢ | +$187 | $1,529 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Prince Andrew charged by March 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-753 | $1,180 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 77.7¢ | 90¢ | +$3,007 | $22,833 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | Yes | 78.4¢ | 82¢ | +$239 | $5,221 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 77.8¢ | 81¢ | +$248 | $5,598 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 77.0¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | $208 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? | Yes | 66.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,421 | $12,854 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,259 | $13,235 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 66.3¢ | 100¢ | +$854 | $1,688 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 24.9¢ | 100¢ | +$512 | $170 | 28/02/2026 |
| New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28? | Yes | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | $1,940 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? | No | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $300 | 28/02/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $75 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 79.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $300 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | $1,001 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Russia join the Board of Peace? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $80 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | Yes | 27.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1,016 | $1,602 | 28/02/2026 |
| Trump announces military action against Iran durring SOTU? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $1,000 | 25/02/2026 |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | No | 59.2¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | $170 | 20/02/2026 |
| Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-37 | $389 | 13/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | No | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5,321 | $21,411 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4,021 | $61,919 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,148 | $17,882 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | No | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,841 | $7,601 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,379 | $37,546 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,366 | $26,690 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,063 | $8,425 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | No | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,041 | $9,491 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$964 | $16,110 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$559 | $9,690 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$287 | $5,880 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$232 | $6,843 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | $3,382 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $1,209 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $2,220 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $3,262 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $1,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $959 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $1,300 | 31/01/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $200 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $200 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $500 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 48.2¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $140 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 45.8¢ | 0¢ | $-100,894 | $136,076 | 31/01/2026 |