Win rate
89.0%
2066 W / 256 L
Total PnL
$-4,177
realized $-17,166 · unrealized $12,989
Portfolio
$12,989
volume $2,947,507
Predictions
6,261
36.4/day · avg $471
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 96% +$349
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 72¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 93% +$64
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after February 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Culture 100% +$43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will The Three Sisters win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Children no More: Were and Are Gone win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will The Alabama Solution win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elio win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Butcher's Stain win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Sirāt win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 98% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $600? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 2 above $435? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $720? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $450? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $200? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Finance 90% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 72¢ | $-5 | loss |
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 74¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Discord IPO in 2025? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Oracle say "Hyperscaler" during earnings call? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Esports 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dota 2 win Labor of Love at the 2025 Steam Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 70% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Georgia in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Mentions 97% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 98% $-67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $110? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $80? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of February? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of February? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $130? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $20? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 58% $-193
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | Yes | 94¢ | 88¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 84% $-281
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Hyperbeat FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 97¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Yes | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Hyperswap FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Harmonix FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Weather 88% $-1,175
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 26? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on November 9? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 4? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on November 4? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 4? | Yes | 99¢ | 0¢ | $-646 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on November 2? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 93% $-1,870
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Paradex launch a token by September 30 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 46¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 82¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 16¢ | $-4 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $68 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $82 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $173 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 90.4¢ | 19¢ | $-151 | $191 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 43.7¢ | 99¢ | +$84 | $66 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 10? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $62 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $44 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $34 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 69.1¢ | 46¢ | $-22 | $65 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 1? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $331 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $1,587 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $794 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Backpack launch a token on March 24? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $382 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $100 in March? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $97 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $33 | 01/04/2026 |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $31 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $173 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $888 | 01/04/2026 |
| Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $104 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $311 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $121 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 4? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $398 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 7? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $93 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 9? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $98 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 6? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $76 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $121 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 8? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $87 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 2? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 6? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $87 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | $-107 | $510 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $246 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $110 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $768 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $240 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $142 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $217 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $211 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $272 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $1,186 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $528 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $356 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $508 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $888 | 31/03/2026 |