JD-Vance

Geopolitics 77% +$923 $21,163 vol · 101 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	67¢	86¢	+$48	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	56¢	76¢	+$18	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	63¢	82¢	$-2	loss
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	87¢	88¢	$-3	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	35¢	30¢	$-7	loss
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	32¢	22¢	$-16	loss
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	82¢	99¢	+$15	win

Crypto 75% +$4 $349 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026?	No	67¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	72¢	100¢	+$13	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	65¢	100¢	+$29	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	81¢	100¢	+$7	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	62¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	82¢	100¢	+$12	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	81¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in February 2026?	No	90¢	100¢	+$4	win

Tech 100% +$3 $30 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$3	win

Other 66% $-7 $13,267 vol · 62 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	41¢	41¢	+$8	win
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	65¢	90¢	+$4	win
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$3	win
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	89¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	64¢	52¢	+$2	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	76¢	84¢	+$2	win
Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?	Yes	66¢	2¢	$-18	loss
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?	No	83¢	92¢	+$2	win
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	68¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$29	win

Finance 67% $-32 $681 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	55¢	70¢	+$7	win
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	85¢	98¢	+$32	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 2?	Down	86¢	0¢	$-70	loss

Weather 20% $-62 $161 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	No	90¢	0¢	$-11	loss
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	No	62¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?	No	82¢	0¢	$-22	loss

Economy 33% $-96 $968 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-119	loss
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	65¢	68¢	+$32	win
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	No	75¢	70¢	$-9	loss

Sports 70% $-98 $3,548 vol · 27 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	86¢	99¢	+$24	win
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	No	68¢	1¢	$-37	loss
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	73¢	96¢	+$62	win
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	51¢	67¢	+$12	win
Warriors vs. Clippers	Clippers	76¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Heat vs. Hornets	Hornets	73¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$4	win
Cavaliers vs. Lakers	Lakers	86¢	100¢	+$5	win

Politics 68% $-158 $7,408 vol · 41 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	No	73¢	85¢	+$1	win
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	62¢	64¢	+$5	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	55¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	12¢	1¢	$-118	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	62¢	99¢	+$10	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	47¢	52¢	+$6	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	54¢	57¢	+$1	win
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	84¢	80¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?	No	70¢	90¢	+$5	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	No	80¢	94¢	+$9	win

Elections 55% $-508 $1,979 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$24	win
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?	Yes	47¢	0¢	$-302	loss
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	22¢	0¢	$-94	loss
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?	No	59¢	1¢	$-198	loss
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	90¢	95¢	$-2	loss
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	No	73¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	72¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$58	win