GCNO1

Geopolitics 77% +$46,205 $737,609 vol · 186 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	20¢	18¢	+$2	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	91¢	100¢	+$175	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$807	win
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	92¢	100¢	+$9	win
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	8¢	9¢	+$2	win
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	90¢	91¢	+$0	—
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	41¢	78¢	$-20	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	87¢	91¢	$-148	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	1¢	0¢	$-850	loss

Other 79% +$14,481 $227,159 vol · 115 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	65¢	60¢	$-93	loss
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$715	win
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$107	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	79¢	82¢	+$22	win
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?	No	100¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	17¢	18¢	+$9	win
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	98¢	100¢	+$6	win
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	93¢	100¢	$-500	loss
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	96¢	99¢	+$12	win
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	92¢	95¢	+$5	win

Politics 76% +$13,536 $250,797 vol · 42 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$581	win
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	No	92¢	98¢	+$6	win
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	89¢	74¢	+$0	win
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	6¢	2¢	$-13	loss
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?	No	86¢	86¢	$-22	loss
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	88¢	40¢	$-203	loss
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	88¢	40¢	$-292	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?	No	96¢	100¢	+$80	win
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	98¢	100¢	+$96	win
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	No	97¢	98¢	+$11	win

Finance 78% +$2,212 $61,868 vol · 37 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Arxis’s market cap be greater than $13B at market close on IPO day?	No	89¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Arxis’s market cap be greater than $13B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$20	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14?	Up	97¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at 6900–7000 on April 8?	No	90¢	100¢	+$5	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 8?	Up	98¢	100¢	+$112	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 8?	Up	97¢	100¢	+$26	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 8?	Down	3¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8?	No	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at 6900–7000 on April 8?	Yes	91¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1?	No	69¢	100¢	+$31	win

Sports 100% +$13 $131 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$13	win

Economy 100% +$8 $3,862 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	95¢	99¢	+$2	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	2¢	0¢	+$0	—

Crypto 100% +$1 $629 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	Yes	6¢	6¢	+$0	win
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	96¢	96¢	+$0	win

Weather 62% $-42 $1,116 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on April 16?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-27	loss
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or higher on April 16?	No	98¢	100¢	$-48	loss
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 16?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-49	loss
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8?	No	70¢	100¢	+$65	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 7?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win

Tech 0% $-155 $155 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	No	15¢	0¢	$-155	loss

Elections 71% $-190 $6,412 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	92¢	93¢	+$4	win
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	Yes	3¢	4¢	$-10	loss
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	98¢	100¢	$-209	loss
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia Mejia	No	88¢	88¢	$-1	loss
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	94¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	92¢	14¢	+$29	win
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?	No	92¢	96¢	+$10	win
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	90¢	96¢	+$3	win
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?	Yes	97¢	97¢	+$0	win