ismirdelft

Elections 80% +$134 $706 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	86¢	77¢	$-8	loss
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	62¢	80¢	+$12	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	11¢	20¢	+$69	win
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	88¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	76¢	99¢	+$9	win
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$7	win

Politics 80% $-12 $274 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	44¢	44¢	+$2	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	No	97¢	100¢	$-24	loss
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?	No	95¢	100¢	+$4	win
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?	No	80¢	72¢	+$3	win

Other 83% $-22 $848 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	80¢	84¢	+$5	win
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	91¢	99¢	+$5	win
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	83¢	86¢	+$0	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	79¢	76¢	$-40	loss
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	82¢	98¢	+$18	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	85¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	95¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?	No	92¢	100¢	+$1	win

Geopolitics 58% $-38 $1,248 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	86¢	90¢	+$0	win
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	82¢	85¢	+$1	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	24¢	30¢	+$13	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	85¢	92¢	+$4	win
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	88¢	93¢	+$0	—
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	84¢	78¢	$-5	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	73¢	62¢	$-10	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	89¢	99¢	+$9	win
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$1	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	25¢	18¢	$-5	loss