Win rate
70.3%
52 W / 22 L
Total PnL
$-2,670
realized $-5,764 · unrealized $3,093
Portfolio
$3,093
volume $694,870
Predictions
77
2.2/day · avg $9,024
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Politics 83% $-131
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 44¢ | 56¢ | +$24 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-409 | loss |
Other 43% $-198
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 41¢ | 14¢ | $-132 | loss |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 28¢ | 4¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 62¢ | 42¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 47¢ | 58¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | No | 74¢ | 96¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Zhejiang Lions vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls | Zhejiang Lions | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Geopolitics 75% $-2,633
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 54¢ | 88¢ | +$3 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 53¢ | 76¢ | +$218 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 70¢ | +$72 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-392 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 94¢ | +$40 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 16¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 31¢ | 49¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$19 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 85.6¢ | 0¢ | +$356 | $7,001 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$173 | $5,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 78.1¢ | 98¢ | +$128 | $899 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $130 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $344 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 98.4¢ | 0¢ | $-910 | $13,149 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 97.4¢ | 11¢ | $-4,504 | $9,740 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$685 | $20,531 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$343 | $4,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$223 | $3,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $8,784 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $5,001 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $1,001 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $1,610 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 86¢ | +$16 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $428 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $168 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $188 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 64.1¢ | 100¢ | $-409 | $503 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,189 | $8,084 | 01/03/2026 |
| Zhejiang Lions vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls | Zhejiang Lions | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $50 | 07/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$738 | $25,233 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$277 | $12,135 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | $11,433 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $11,965 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | $11,680 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | $11,296 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $11,834 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $11,621 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $12,298 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $239 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $236 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $12,413 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 31/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$392 | $21,061 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$186 | $13,002 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $101 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $810 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | $-2,815 | $48,346 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 41.0¢ | 94¢ | +$33 | $62 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 6¢ | +$16 | $60 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 65.0¢ | 59¢ | $-90 | $975 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 65.0¢ | 48¢ | $-50 | $195 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 56¢ | +$24 | $185 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 84¢ | +$14 | $154 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 63.3¢ | 34¢ | $-129 | $285 | 30/04/2026 |