Win rate
57.3%
63 W / 47 L
Total PnL
$-46
realized $-726 · unrealized $680
Portfolio
$680
volume $42,393
Predictions
1,349
29.3/day · avg $31
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 70% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 85¢ | 80¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 66¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 50% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 80¢ | 62¢ | $-1 | loss |
Crypto 50% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Finance 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 50% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 46¢ | 71¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 33% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
Geopolitics 54% $-54
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 68¢ | 70¢ | +$1 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 30¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 33¢ | 20¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 55¢ | 84¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 78¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 82.1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $43 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 44.2¢ | 91¢ | +$4 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 37.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $31 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 44.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $27 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 81.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $203 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $73 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 28.4¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February? | Yes | 43.6¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $28 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $51 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February? | Yes | 34.8¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $21 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $71 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $37 | 04/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $112 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $28 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 28/02/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $43 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 98.6¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 87.7¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $35 | 28/02/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $28 | 28/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $35 | 14/02/2026 |
| Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 11/02/2026 |
| Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 08/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 68.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $76 | 31/01/2026 |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $41 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $51 | 31/01/2026 |