Win rate
86.3%
875 W / 139 L
Total PnL
$-10,664
realized $-13,414 · unrealized $2,750
Portfolio
$2,750
volume $2,224,729
Predictions
1,316
13.1/day · avg $1,691
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Weather 89% +$17,343
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18? | Yes | 52¢ | 42¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 17? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 16? | No | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$207 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 16? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Sports 71% +$282
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$2,147 | win |
| Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$114 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Finland record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-2,044 | loss |
Politics 75% +$213
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 7¢ | $-155 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-113 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Crypto 80% +$127
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Finance 75% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discord IPO before 2027? | Yes | 90¢ | 59¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-406 | loss |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Economy 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Elections 50% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
Tech 50% $-28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Other 68% $-3,567
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | win |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | win |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 61¢ | 58¢ | +$19 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | No | 45¢ | 36¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 19¢ | $-1,206 | loss |
| Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
Geopolitics 76% $-13,589
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-237 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-983 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$299 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-5,332 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 42¢ | $-10 | $52 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $164 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $189 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 17? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $209 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 16? | No | 22.8¢ | 100¢ | +$207 | $61 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16? | No | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $111 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16? | Yes | 19.5¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $218 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 16? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $180 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $234 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 15? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $29 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 14? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $24 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 14? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $2,414 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 14? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $618 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $78 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 14? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $897 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 14? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 14? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $34 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? | No | 77.5¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $155 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $131 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 13? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $395 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | +$44 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12? | Yes | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $562 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 12? | Yes | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $120 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on April 12? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $120 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 12? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $176 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $67 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 11? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $704 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,488 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 11? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $384 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $190 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 11? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $84 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $130 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 11? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $196 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or higher on April 11? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $129 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $146 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 11? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $91 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 11? | No | 92.9¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $50 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 10? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $248 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 10? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $5,057 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 9? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $989 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $418 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $397 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $196 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or higher on April 9? | Yes | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $34 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 9? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $109 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 9? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $161 | 09/04/2026 |