Win rate
54.3%
19 W / 16 L
Total PnL
$-71
realized $-775 · unrealized $704
Portfolio
$704
volume $25,006
Predictions
223
7.3/day · avg $112
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 100% +$308
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$203 | win |
| Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Weather 100% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Other 67% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | 56¢ | 64¢ | +$5 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 46¢ | 42¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 3.5 | Under | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Politics 50% $-6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 42¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 40¢ | 44¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 15¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Sports 0% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $-32 | loss |
Geopolitics 48% $-45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 55¢ | 49¢ | $-8 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 54¢ | +$18 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 62¢ | +$9 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 33¢ | 4¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 50% $-71
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | Down | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Up | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Recent Trades (35)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 32.2¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | $147 | 15/04/2026 |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31? | No | 37.6¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 37.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 29.3¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 43.1¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 3.5 | Under | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 29/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | Down | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $100 | 26/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Up | 81.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 26/03/2026 |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | Yes | 35.5¢ | 100¢ | +$203 | $119 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? | Yes | 29.1¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $42 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%? | No | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $22 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28? | No | 64.5¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $50 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 15.4¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $26 | 31/01/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 19.6¢ | 6¢ | $-11 | $20 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 72¢ | $-6 | $56 | 20/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 70.4¢ | 86¢ | +$14 | $62 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 49.1¢ | 42¢ | $-11 | $78 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 46.4¢ | 42¢ | $-7 | $67 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 54.7¢ | 49¢ | $-8 | $77 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 39.8¢ | 44¢ | +$4 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 54¢ | +$18 | $26 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 49.5¢ | 62¢ | +$9 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 4¢ | $-19 | $55 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? | No | 81.6¢ | 86¢ | $-2 | $53 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 71.6¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $282 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 62.7¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | 55.6¢ | 64¢ | +$5 | $34 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | No | 93.2¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | $23 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | No | 23.6¢ | 74¢ | $-7 | $40 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 84.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $35 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? | Yes | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 7.1¢ | 4¢ | $-32 | $137 | 30/06/2026 |