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Politics 83% +$139 $534 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	Yes	94¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	No	98¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29)	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during the Black History Month reception?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$129	win

Esports 86% +$20 $245 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	TheMongolz	88¢	100¢	+$4	win
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	FOKUS	73¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	TheMongolz	85¢	100¢	+$8	win
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	TheMongolz	81¢	100¢	+$10	win
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs	BetBoom Team	72¢	100¢	+$14	win
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs	G2	85¢	100¢	+$8	win
Suns vs. Celtics: O/U 212.5	Over	58¢	100¢	+$15	win

Weather 0% +$0 $510 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5	Under	51¢	0¢	+$0	—

Tech 50% $-8 $219 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	72¢	24¢	$-9	loss
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$1	win

Elections 0% $-10 $2,667 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	$-0	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	83¢	90¢	$-10	loss
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	64¢	58¢	$-0	loss

Sports 39% $-90 $2,198 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$-2	loss
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)	Timberwolves	49¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	Under	44¢	100¢	+$-0	—
Penguins vs. Lightning	Lightning	60¢	100¢	+$16	win
Islanders vs. Sabres	Sabres	64¢	100¢	+$18	win
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets	Blue Jackets	46¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Nets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5	Under	44¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 232.5	Over	56¢	100¢	+$19	win
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 235.5	Under	55¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5	Under	71¢	0¢	$-23	loss

Culture 41% $-230 $2,053 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	79¢	78¢	$-0	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	No	96¢	100¢	$-23	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	50¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-10	loss

Geopolitics 61% $-453 $6,335 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	85¢	94¢	+$1	win
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$5	win
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-521	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	67¢	97¢	+$1	win
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	59¢	0¢	$-2	loss
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	74¢	87¢	$-8	loss

Other 71% $-779 $5,926 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	77¢	70¢	$-2	loss
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	23¢	57¢	+$39	win
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	59¢	8¢	$-124	loss
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	No	76¢	92¢	+$22	win
Claude 4.7 released by April 30?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	60¢	70¢	+$22	win