Win rate
96.9%
897 W / 29 L
Total PnL
$56,702
realized $11,853 · unrealized $44,849
Portfolio
$44,849
volume $4,748,807
Predictions
981
5.5/day · avg $4,841
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 95% +$17,477
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Owlto FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Owlto FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 98% +$17,092
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$1,375 | win |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | win |
Politics 98% +$10,707
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Graham Platner drop out of Maine Senate race by December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 18? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Child" or "Childhood" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 89% +$9,367
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | No | 98¢ | 94¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$442 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-756 | loss |
| Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| ChatGPT Outage by February 28? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Will Google reach $330 in January? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Apple dip to $256 in January? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Tesla dip to $428 in January? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-93 | loss |
Crypto 96% +$674
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will "Coin" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 6? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | win |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Water Supply" during press conference? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ye say something antisemitic before March? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the fundraiser? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Seth Rogen (The Studio) win Best Actor – Television Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET | Down | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | win |
Elections 100% +$466
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" during the fundraiser? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kamala Harris say "Midterm" on Jimmy Kimmel Live? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$329 | win |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | win |
Sports 100% +$314
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) | Gauge Young | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Warriors vs. Timberwolves | Warriors | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| World Test Championship: Australia vs England (Game 4) - Team Top Batter Australia Winner | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| World Test Championship: Australia vs England (Game 4) - Team Top Batter England Winner | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | Raptors | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| World Test Championship: Australia vs England (Game 3) - Team Top Batter England Winner | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor | Demoor | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | win |
| Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) | Rockets | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Brian Armstrong say "Solana" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 100% +$257
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will A$AP Rocky release a new song in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year award? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year award? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Netflix" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will No Other Choice win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 'The Mountain' - Gorillaz debut week album sales be between 80k and 95k? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Let God Sort Em Out (Clipse Pusha T Malice) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will "Alone - The Cure" win Best Alternative Music Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will "ICE" be said at the Grammys? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 100% +$185
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
Weather 100% +$80
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 20? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 20? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 19? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 16? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on December 29? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on December 28? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on December 27? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Mentions 100% +$43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Finance 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lance Leipold be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Nike say "Skims / NikeSKIMS" during earnings call? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will KB Home (KBH) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Wealthfront's market cap be greater than $2.05B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Costco say "Expansion" during earnings call? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Adobe say "3D" during earnings call? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Esports 100% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #19 Group C | BIG Academy | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will LNG Esports win Demacia Cup 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Take me away vs Last Bullet - Map 2 Winner | Take me away | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Take me away vs Last Bullet (BO3) | Last Bullet | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Most Wanted - Game 1 Winner | Most Wanted | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Rocket League: Chile vs Germany (BO2) | Germany | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) | Gauge Young | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $14,953 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 18? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Win" or "Won" 3+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $510 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Trump Account" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $162 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Child" or "Childhood" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $94 | 16/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | $7,696 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | $86,410 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $9,269 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $5,664 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$361 | $11,430 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "Ayatollah" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $326 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Rail" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $750 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Guard" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $651 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Dario" or "Amodei" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $708 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $517 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "AI" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $408 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Wild" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $192 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Netflix" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $173 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "California" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $173 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Coin" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $148 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Cuba" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $148 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Skynet" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $565 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $187 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "China" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $130 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Department of War" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $130 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $23,284 | 01/04/2026 |
| John Daghita arrested by March 31? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $2,534 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 7? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,924 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 6? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,106 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,232 | $11,336 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,143 | $52,839 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 20.4¢ | 0¢ | +$442 | $305 | 31/03/2026 |
| Weed rescheduled by March 31? | No | 49.1¢ | 100¢ | +$272 | $316 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by March 31? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$184 | $4,617 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $40,317 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | $11,778 | 31/03/2026 |
| ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | No | 53.1¢ | 100¢ | +$162 | $296 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tim Walz activate the National Guard in MN by March 31? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $3,087 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $5,898 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $3,561 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tucker Carlson be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Year? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $7,253 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $1,995 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $4,283 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $59,691 | 31/03/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $393 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $8,834 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Luigi Mangione smile during next court appearance? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $16,099 | 31/03/2026 |
| Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $169 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $1,680 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $414 | 31/03/2026 |