Win rate
71.7%
554 W / 219 L
Total PnL
$17,943
realized $-20,969 · unrealized $38,912
Portfolio
$38,912
volume $2,058,918
Predictions
799
9.0/day · avg $2,577
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 74% +$15,082
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 38¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 63¢ | 44¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 68¢ | 78¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Yes | 68¢ | 50¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38¢ | 39¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 68% +$11,474
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 7¢ | +$67 | win |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 92¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$33 | win |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | No | 81¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 39¢ | 38¢ | +$4 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 1¢ | 4¢ | +$119 | win |
Politics 73% +$3,689
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 1¢ | $-526 | loss |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 73¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump visit Switzerland in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Texas in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$17 | win |
Culture 80% +$193
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Send Help be the highest grossing movie this weekend? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-168 | loss |
| Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will another movie gross most in 2024? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| 'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office? | Sonic | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Economy 100% +$67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
Crypto 78% +$31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 40¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 60¢ | 60¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 8? | Down | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 100% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celonis IPO before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | +$16 | win |
Sports 80% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| SNHL: Fribourg-Gotteron vs. Davos | Fribourg-Gotteron | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| SNHL: Fribourg-Gotteron vs. Davos | Davos | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Arnaldi | Arnaldi | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Arnaldi | Fucsovics | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Mentions 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Esports 50% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: AVULUS vs OG (BO2) | AVULUS | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$166 | win |
| Counter-Strike: WOPA Esport vs MASONIC (BO3) | WOPA Esport | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | win |
| Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Boring Players (BO3) | The Huns Esports | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Boring Players (BO3) | Boring Players | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: WOPA Esport vs MASONIC (BO3) | MASONIC | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Dota 2: AVULUS vs OG (BO2) | OG | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | loss |
Weather 33% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Geopolitics 73% $-884
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 97¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 62¢ | 70¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 99¢ | 0¢ | $-1,898 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 74¢ | 76¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 81¢ | +$58 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 24¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 74¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Tech 46% $-2,891
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-2,041 | loss |
| Will Imane Khelif rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-298 | loss |
| Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $585 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$403 | $2,274 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Adrienne Charles win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,450 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Doly Begum win the by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $96 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 28.1¢ | 0¢ | $-370 | $413 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 34.0¢ | 1¢ | +$64 | $136 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 26.2¢ | 1¢ | $-79 | $396 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 88.6¢ | 99¢ | +$242 | $2,933 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $1,150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $394 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $306 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 66.4¢ | 81¢ | +$15 | $67 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 44.4¢ | 79¢ | +$12 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 59.2¢ | 99¢ | $-45 | $379 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 25.7¢ | 20¢ | +$8 | $34 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 93.5¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $280 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $497 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $358 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $52 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$237 | $3,625 | 31/03/2026 |
| José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | $2,426 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $4,675 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $775 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $5,987 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $2,446 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $174 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $379 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $536 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 86¢ | +$14 | $146 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will People's Action Party (PAP) win the 2025 Singapore parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $13,362 | 31/03/2026 |
| Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $194 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 74.7¢ | 90¢ | +$56 | $337 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $2,421 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 47.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3,631 | $3,311 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $2,531 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $3,238 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Grüne win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $245 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Linke win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $74 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $57 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $57 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $57 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $57 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $57 | 22/03/2026 |