Win rate
58.2%
39 W / 28 L
Total PnL
$-1,664
realized $-7,158 · unrealized $5,494
Portfolio
$5,494
volume $208,244
Predictions
329
6.8/day · avg $633
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 45% +$610
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$417 | win |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 48¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? | No | 29¢ | 14¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Cyber" during Monday news conference? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$288 | win |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
Sports 56% +$360
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 49¢ | 44¢ | +$172 | win |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | No | 19¢ | 22¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | No | 58¢ | 87¢ | +$275 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 67¢ | 96¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Virginia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Finance 100% +$61
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | +$61 | win |
Crypto 88% $-19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | Up | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Down | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | Up | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Up | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | Up | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 44% $-290
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 43¢ | 49¢ | +$1 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 19¢ | 19¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 58¢ | 74¢ | +$261 | win |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
Elections 67% $-600
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 29¢ | 22¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 59¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 40¢ | 41¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? | No | 35¢ | 24¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 11¢ | 42¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 13¢ | 18¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "Voter ID" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 14¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $-2 | loss |
Geopolitics 60% $-1,536
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 29¢ | 45¢ | +$134 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 32¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-643 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 66¢ | 9¢ | $-963 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | win |
| Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $-643 | $654 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $1,055 | 13/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 66.1¢ | 9¢ | $-963 | $4,593 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 75.5¢ | 91¢ | $-294 | $6,860 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Cyber" during Monday news conference? | No | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $400 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $100 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Saint Louis win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Virginia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | No | 26.1¢ | 100¢ | +$288 | $102 | 01/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $1,135 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | $1,140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? | No | 29.1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Voter ID" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | No | 45.4¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $50 | 26/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Newscum" or "Massie" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | No | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $25 | 26/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | No | 68.9¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 26/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Too Big to Rig" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? | No | 61.2¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $150 | 25/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 25/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | Up | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $36 | 20/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Down | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $53 | 17/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | Up | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $33 | 16/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Up | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $24 | 16/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Down | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $24 | 16/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | Down | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $24 | 16/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | Up | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $24 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 37.5 and 38.0 million views on day 5? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $35 | 26/02/2026 |
| Sheffield United FC vs. Coventry City FC: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $25 | 25/02/2026 |
| Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $25 | 25/02/2026 |
| Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 25/02/2026 |
| Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 4¢ | +$6 | $70 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Yes | 44.6¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $129 | 31/10/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 70.1¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $493 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 7.1¢ | 14¢ | +$27 | $21 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will JD Vance clap 100 times or more during the State of the Union? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $477 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will JD Vance clap 100 times or more during the State of the Union? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 0¢ | $-486 | $486 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 76.0¢ | 76¢ | $-2 | $355 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 32¢ | $-5 | $85 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 45¢ | +$134 | $250 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 3¢ | $-15 | $49 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $83 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 18¢ | +$4 | $58 | 02/06/2026 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 67.3¢ | 96¢ | +$30 | $70 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 10.9¢ | 42¢ | +$66 | $23 | 21/06/2026 |
| Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | No | 58.3¢ | 87¢ | +$275 | $559 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? | No | 28.9¢ | 14¢ | $-2 | $118 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Yes | 10.4¢ | 7¢ | $-41 | $138 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? | No | 84.0¢ | 91¢ | +$4 | $45 | 01/09/2026 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 91¢ | +$13 | $1,286 | 10/10/2026 |