Win rate
71.4%
30 W / 12 L
Total PnL
$2,422
realized $-3,534 · unrealized $5,956
Portfolio
$5,956
volume $58,173
Predictions
63
2.0/day · avg $923
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 70% +$1,664
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 61¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 93¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | No | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 68¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 88¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 94¢ | +$52 | win |
| Claude 4.7 released by May 31? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Claude 4.7 released by June 30? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 92¢ | +$58 | win |
Tech 50% +$888
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 76¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 69¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 8¢ | 1¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$233 | win |
| Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
Culture 100% +$147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
Politics 100% +$83
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
Geopolitics 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Recent Trades (46)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 100¢ | +$737 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | Yes | 53.6¢ | 0¢ | +$498 | $3,120 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Yes | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$233 | $1,493 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 71.5¢ | 100¢ | +$206 | $857 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | $1,488 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $706 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $1,292 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $492 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $1,971 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math on March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $748 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model for math on March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 66.7¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $200 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $353 | 15/03/2026 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Down | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $1,940 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 8.1¢ | 1¢ | $-70 | $81 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 89.9¢ | 92¢ | +$13 | $539 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 75.2¢ | 90¢ | +$75 | $381 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 71¢ | +$218 | $56 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 90.0¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $30 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 71.4¢ | 69¢ | $-34 | $1,122 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 76¢ | $-4 | $619 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 80.7¢ | 92¢ | +$58 | $403 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 73.4¢ | 92¢ | +$132 | $578 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 27.7¢ | 57¢ | +$124 | $121 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 72.6¢ | 88¢ | +$58 | $292 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? | No | 79.6¢ | 94¢ | +$52 | $398 | 30/06/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by May 31? | Yes | 33.2¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $33 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 76.5¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | $165 | 30/06/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by June 30? | No | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $47 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 86.8¢ | 84¢ | $-30 | $1,124 | 30/09/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 73.4¢ | 82¢ | +$47 | $379 | 30/09/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 68¢ | +$7 | $51 | 30/09/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 84.8¢ | 91¢ | +$34 | $464 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 85.8¢ | 93¢ | +$39 | $478 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | $71 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 61¢ | +$52 | $49 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $289 | 03/01/2027 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50.0¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | $4,553 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | $4,553 | 07/11/2028 |