Win rate
62.1%
543 W / 331 L
Total PnL
$125,730
realized $117,358 · unrealized $8,372
Portfolio
$8,372
volume $12,958,767
Predictions
815
8.4/day · avg $15,900
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/10/2023 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 63% +$118,445
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 21¢ | 26¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$1,575 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 16¢ | +$1,100 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$186 | win |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 82¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 70¢ | +$167 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 24¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 37¢ | 30¢ | +$88 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | loss |
Other 66% +$5,521
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 81¢ | 98¢ | +$257 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 62¢ | 56¢ | +$14 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$260 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 74¢ | 58¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | Yes | 55¢ | 78¢ | $-168 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | 42¢ | 64¢ | +$80 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 11¢ | 13¢ | +$12 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 55¢ | 24¢ | +$213 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? | Yes | 23¢ | 3¢ | +$10 | win |
Mentions 43% +$3,425
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 100¢ | +$344 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$57 | win |
Elections 79% +$1,148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 24¢ | 28¢ | +$145 | win |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 75¢ | 81¢ | +$296 | win |
| Will Syria hold national elections before July? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before U.S. election? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Palestine a UN member state before U.S. election? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before U.S. election? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Lai Ching-te win? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Who will get more votes in Taiwan Election: Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) or Ko Wen-je (柯文哲)? | Yu-ih | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Tech 80% +$84
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 12? | Up | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | loss |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| NVIDIA largest company before June 15? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| NVIDIA flips Apple in market cap by April 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | win |
| NVIDIA flips Apple in market cap by April 30? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Google or NVIDIA be worth more on March 1? | NVIDIA | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
Finance 0% $-35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
Economy 60% $-124
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | No | 62¢ | 90¢ | +$105 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before July? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-211 | loss |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-681 | loss |
| Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by Jan 15? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by end of 2023? | Yes | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$662 | win |
Sports 0% $-127
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards vs. Nets | Wizards | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-127 | loss |
Crypto 55% $-180
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | Down | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-225 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | Down | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET | Down | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | Down | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 62% $-4,054
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 61¢ | 48¢ | $-316 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$318 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | +$19 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-262 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 13¢ | 12¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-253 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Peace" 8+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 32.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,048 | $5,169 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$215 | $330 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 67.5¢ | 0¢ | +$166 | $11,144 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 17.8¢ | 7¢ | $-4 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 80.9¢ | 93¢ | $-7 | $2,665 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $190 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 23.1¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $149 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | $-60 | $6,612 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | $-108 | $2,324 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | $-194 | $29,140 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $-262 | $81 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | Down | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | $-225 | $225 | 13/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 56.8¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $917 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 37.4¢ | 100¢ | +$309 | $6,532 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 80.3¢ | 93¢ | +$48 | $5,515 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $1,728 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 18.4¢ | 7¢ | $-314 | $1,535 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$471 | $1,399 | 04/04/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 38.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,390 | $2,927 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 25.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,190 | $9,813 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,186 | $12,450 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,051 | $9,738 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | +$1,051 | $2,796 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 21.2¢ | 100¢ | +$723 | $1,681 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 31.8¢ | 0¢ | +$671 | $3,948 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$631 | $12,563 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$551 | $2,221 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$534 | $7,575 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$361 | $1,904 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | $29,809 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$296 | $6,922 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | +$270 | $888 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$170 | $1,054 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 15.2¢ | 0¢ | +$144 | $822 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 64.6¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $2,703 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Yes | 23.1¢ | 0¢ | +$132 | $579 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $1,061 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition | No | 70.5¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $224 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$89 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 63.2¢ | 0¢ | +$81 | $1,024 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $2,055 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $27,198 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 12.9¢ | 12¢ | +$59 | $185 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 18.4¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 70.1¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $2,404 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 19.5¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | $1,015 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | $110 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 28.5¢ | 50¢ | +$42 | $1,054 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | No | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |