Win rate
66.1%
271 W / 139 L
Total PnL
$3,211
realized $1,860 · unrealized $1,352
Portfolio
$1,352
volume $3,365,038
Predictions
4,403
47.9/day · avg $764
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 71% +$957
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 41¢ | 57¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Fred Hoiberg win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Jalen Hurts win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
Other 75% +$880
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 7¢ | 55¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 8¢ | 10¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 56¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | Yes | 33¢ | 53¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will 3DMAX qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? | No | 70¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
Crypto 65% +$262
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will BNB dip to $600 in March? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Solana reach $110 in March? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 11? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 11? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 10? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 9? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 87% +$230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$61 | win |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
Elections 57% +$185
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 35¢ | 22¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 36¢ | 18¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 45¢ | 85¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%? | Yes | 12¢ | 6¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 77¢ | 99¢ | +$19 | win |
Politics 70% +$88
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 53¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 8¢ | 76¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Powell say "Supreme Court" during March press conference? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 19¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Culture 52% +$80
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 23¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
Geopolitics 49% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 69¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $-0 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 30¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | win |
| Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Esports 100% +$41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | win |
Finance 29% +$27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 39¢ | 20¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Fannie Mae IPO in 2025? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 24¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Mentions 57% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in October 2025? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Economy 50% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? | Yes | 21¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Weather 75% $-21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 34¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 8? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 8? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 8? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 8? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 7? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 7? | Yes | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on March 7? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trevor win the Legend Trade Series? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $31 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Kurt win the Legend Trade Series? | Yes | 11.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $66 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $35 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $27 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Fred Hoiberg win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award? | No | 40.8¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 22.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $45 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $20 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | No | 68.8¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $25 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 34.2¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $547 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 30.6¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $255 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 45.1¢ | 85¢ | +$22 | $144 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%? | Yes | 11.8¢ | 6¢ | +$20 | $228 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 99¢ | +$19 | $53 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 25.8¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $111 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $26 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $33 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will PARIVISION win PGL Bucharest 2026? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $28 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $178 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get between 70 and 71 million views on day 5? | Yes | 26.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $44 | 09/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 62.6¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $21 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will BNB dip to $600 in March? | Yes | 19.8¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana dip to $70 in March? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $32 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $110 in March? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $27 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $22 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 39.3¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $164 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $567 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | No | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March? | Yes | 36.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? | Yes | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $600 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of March 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | No | 37.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 28.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Nothing | 64.0¢ | 62¢ | +$3 | $122 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? | Yes | 35.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| AWS service disrupted by March 31? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31? | No | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will SOFR hit 3.60% (Low) between March 1 and March 31? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? | Yes | 44.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $38 | 26/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 36.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 18/03/2026 |