Win rate
61.8%
21 W / 13 L
Total PnL
$0
realized $-830 · unrealized $831
Portfolio
$831
volume $245,957
Predictions
54
2.0/day · avg $4,555
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 75% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | — |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | Yes | 67¢ | 54¢ | +$21 | win |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | No | 33¢ | 46¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | — |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 50% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 25¢ | 27¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | No | 49¢ | 48¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 100% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 84¢ | 83¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 59¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | — |
Sports 58% $-25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 35¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Aidan Hutchinson be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Aidan Hutchinson be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
Other 40% $-33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 3¢ | 12¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 92¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-31 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $493 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $857 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $854 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | $575 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | $-31 | $415 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Aidan Hutchinson be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $34 | 07/02/2026 |
| Will Aidan Hutchinson be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | $4,339 | 07/02/2026 |
| Will Ole Miss win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | Yes | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $105 | 20/01/2026 |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | No | 11.8¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $541 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? | Yes | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $916 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 97¢ | +$14 | $812 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 12¢ | +$0 | $69 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 92.5¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | $1,639 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.9¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $1,047 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $836 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 6.1¢ | 4¢ | +$9 | $261 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 26.1¢ | 24¢ | +$3 | $167 | 30/06/2026 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $34 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $68 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 97.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $8,419 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 3¢ | +$0 | $69 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $68 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 83.7¢ | 85¢ | +$4 | $1,278 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 12¢ | +$1 | $46 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 94.8¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | $807 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $38 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 96.1¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | $834 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $835 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 5¢ | $-1 | $47 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 88.5¢ | 89¢ | +$1 | $834 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $22 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 94.7¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | $835 | 20/07/2026 |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 54¢ | +$21 | $704 | 31/07/2026 |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | No | 33.0¢ | 46¢ | +$8 | $500 | 31/07/2026 |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | No | 49.0¢ | 48¢ | +$0 | $391 | 31/07/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 10.8¢ | 10¢ | +$7 | $109 | 20/09/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 88.7¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | $2,680 | 20/09/2026 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 97.3¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $835 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.7¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | $834 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $40 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $1,652 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 59¢ | +$2 | $143 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91.8¢ | 91¢ | $-5 | $1,752 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91.8¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | $917 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 62.5¢ | 61¢ | +$1 | $832 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 92.7¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | $275 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83.9¢ | 83¢ | +$1 | $2,602 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 97.3¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $1,756 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.1¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $4,347 | 07/11/2028 |