Win rate
53.5%
46 W / 40 L
Total PnL
$-52,523
realized $-75,189 · unrealized $22,666
Portfolio
$22,666
volume $557,296
Predictions
103
1.2/day · avg $5,411
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/02/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Crypto 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance say "Coin" 50+ times during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Million", "Billion", and/or "Trillion" 5+ times during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 28? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 80% $-20,798
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on September 4? | No | 97¢ | 0¢ | $-8,789 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 27? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 4? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill by July 4? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-2,106 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 24? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 16? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
Geopolitics 30% $-21,264
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-4,291 | loss |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$130 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-10,000 | loss |
| Iran strike on Qatar today? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$45 | win |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-6,500 | loss |
| Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
Other 39% $-58,128
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 44¢ | 46¢ | +$1,111 | win |
| Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 64¢ | 65¢ | +$81 | win |
| Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5) | CS Cienciano | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$249 | win |
| Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5) | Carabobo FC | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$510 | win |
| Will CF América win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-11,253 | loss |
| Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5) | Club Bolívar | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-475 | loss |
| Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) | Santos FC | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-731 | loss |
| Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-14? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-2,322 | loss |
| Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-04-12? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$6,348 | win |
| Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) | Pumas de la UNAM | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$3,348 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 43.5¢ | 46¢ | +$1,111 | $16,460 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Leyton Orient FC win on 2026-04-18? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 65¢ | +$81 | $5,333 | 18/04/2026 |
| Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5) | CS Cienciano | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$249 | $153 | 17/04/2026 |
| Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5) | Carabobo FC | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$510 | $490 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will CF América win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11,253 | $11,398 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5) | Club Bolívar | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | $-6,675 | $6,739 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Santos FC (-2.5) | Santos FC | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,400 | $1,421 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5) | Club Bolívar | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-475 | $484 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) | Santos FC | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-731 | $738 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-14? | No | 57.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2,322 | $2,352 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-04-12? | No | 60.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6,348 | $9,881 | 12/04/2026 |
| Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) | Pumas de la UNAM | 55.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3,348 | $4,155 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 46.6¢ | 100¢ | +$534 | $466 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 61.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,846 | $1,868 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-04-12? | No | 58.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,117 | $1,132 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-11? | No | 62.7¢ | 0¢ | $-8,894 | $8,994 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 42.4¢ | 0¢ | $-4,058 | $4,057 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Once Caldas win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 56.1¢ | 0¢ | $-2,016 | $2,015 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 55.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,438 | $1,457 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Oldham Athletic AFC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 49.1¢ | 0¢ | $-688 | $699 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-08? | No | 48.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,531 | $1,554 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-04-07? | Yes | 45.4¢ | 0¢ | $-4,723 | $4,801 | 08/04/2026 |
| Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) | Al Hilal Saudi Club | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,860 | $2,640 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | $-4,291 | $4,286 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-07? | Yes | 49.7¢ | 0¢ | $-8,320 | $8,447 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-07? | Yes | 62.8¢ | 0¢ | $-8,192 | $8,277 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Chennaiyin FC win on 2026-04-07? | Yes | 53.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1,375 | $1,375 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Harrogate Town AFC win on 2026-04-06? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 0¢ | $-706 | $719 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Doncaster Rovers FC win on 2026-04-06? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | $-741 | $754 | 06/04/2026 |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) | Southampton FC | 50.7¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $1,136 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will MŠK Žilina win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 53.4¢ | 0¢ | $-895 | $907 | 04/04/2026 |
| Spread: Al Ittihad Saudi Club (-1.5) | Al Ittihad Saudi Club | 51.6¢ | 0¢ | $-835 | $835 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Shrewsbury Town FC win on 2026-04-03? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-895 | $904 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-04-01? | No | 57.9¢ | 100¢ | +$728 | $1,000 | 01/04/2026 |
| Azerbaijan x Armenia peace deal in 2025? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $300 | 31/12/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1,142 | $2,626 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $300 | 05/11/2025 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 18.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,000 | $2,000 | 26/10/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on September 3? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $5,440 | 05/09/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 30? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $955 | 05/09/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $457 | 05/09/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on September 4? | No | 96.9¢ | 0¢ | $-8,789 | $8,789 | 05/09/2025 |
| House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution by August 31? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$114 | $1,925 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 29? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $2,432 | 29/08/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 26? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $260 | 29/08/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 27? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $192 | 29/08/2025 |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? | No | 72.8¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | $364 | 31/07/2025 |
| Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 4? | Yes | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $718 | 31/07/2025 |
| Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill by July 4? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $216 | 31/07/2025 |