Win rate
42.8%
62 W / 83 L
Total PnL
$-1,676
realized $-15,313 · unrealized $13,637
Portfolio
$13,637
volume $235,079
Predictions
158
4.6/day · avg $1,488
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 58% +$2,755
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | Yes | 38¢ | 29¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | Yes | 25¢ | 22¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will US annex any territory in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 11¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 22¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? | Yes | 66¢ | 46¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? | No | 94¢ | 83¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 47¢ | 35¢ | $-36 | loss |
Politics 60% +$84
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 14¢ | 21¢ | +$27 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 29¢ | 36¢ | +$20 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 16¢ | +$63 | win |
Elections 33% $-238
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 27¢ | 22¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 19¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
Geopolitics 32% $-2,360
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 34¢ | 30¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-268 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 30¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 34¢ | 31¢ | +$64 | win |
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 17¢ | $-12 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 57.3¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $600 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 4¢ | $-7 | $120 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 12.3¢ | 0¢ | $-290 | $404 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 35.2¢ | 15¢ | $-430 | $1,554 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 35.0¢ | 1¢ | $-145 | $149 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | Yes | 27.4¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? | No | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,482 | $1,154 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 19.2¢ | 15¢ | $-768 | $5,311 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 56.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,239 | $2,562 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Yes | 42.4¢ | 100¢ | +$408 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 49.8¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $890 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $120 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $727 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 35.7¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | Yes | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $214 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $335 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 34.3¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 42.1¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 30.2¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | $123 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-243 | $296 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 42.7¢ | 0¢ | $-259 | $380 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 20.8¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? | Yes | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? | Yes | 40.8¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | +$304 | $330 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$45 | $100 | 13/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $100 | 01/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $81 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? | Yes | 24.4¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | $-224 | $224 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $40 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 17.4¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 31/01/2026 |