Win rate
87.2%
41 W / 6 L
Total PnL
$634
realized $-4,181 · unrealized $4,814
Portfolio
$4,814
volume $777,307
Predictions
46
0.6/day · avg $16,898
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 93% +$940
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$196 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Other 93% +$114
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Politics 100% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 100% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$16 | win |
Elections 100% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Crypto 67% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Sports 67% $-268
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | +$176 | win |
| Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Recent Trades (47)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $7,702 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $6,413 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $6,651 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $3,607 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,307 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,102 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $6,240 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,095 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $350 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $350 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,370 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $3,684 | 08/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,213 | 03/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,705 | 02/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $3,194 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $2,598 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $50 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $12,291 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $6,903 | 31/01/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $5,853 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $6,908 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $2,260 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,691 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,152 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $1,264 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $2,491 | 27/01/2026 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $11,939 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $741 | 25/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$310 | $24,832 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $19,268 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $6,105 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $1,824 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | No | 99.3¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | $6,878 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $248 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $4,011 | 26/05/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 98¢ | +$197 | $43,455 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 98¢ | +$196 | $43,138 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 67.5¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $6,054 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 1¢ | $-100 | $536 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 9¢ | $-357 | $2,532 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17.3¢ | 17¢ | +$176 | $14,711 | 20/07/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $14,213 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $21,018 | 31/12/2026 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 86.4¢ | 94¢ | +$16 | $1,476 | 31/12/2027 |