Win rate
71.2%
1061 W / 429 L
Total PnL
$215,784
realized $-145,199 · unrealized $360,983
Portfolio
$360,983
volume $22,138,643
Predictions
1,427
8.5/day · avg $15,514
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/03/2022 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 75% +$92,165
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Yellow FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | +$3,368 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$131 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | win |
| Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 88¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | No | 34¢ | 74¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Iga Swiatek win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Politics 81% +$55,487
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 95¢ | 93¢ | +$156 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-446 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$1,440 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1,431 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-266 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$15 | win |
Geopolitics 74% +$34,804
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | +$192 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 10¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 35¢ | 16¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 48¢ | 76¢ | +$133 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$175 | win |
Crypto 80% +$24,221
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$458 | win |
| Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 30 ETH before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 81¢ | +$644 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 42¢ | 81¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? | No | 23¢ | 84¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 35¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will XRP reach $2.40 in February? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | win |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$981 | win |
| Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 60 ETH in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Economy 81% +$6,942
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$128 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$642 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1,158 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$318 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$536 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$342 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$613 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Elections 70% +$4,751
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 70¢ | 84¢ | +$240 | win |
| Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 83¢ | 88¢ | +$235 | win |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 61¢ | +$8 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 62¢ | 64¢ | +$303 | win |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 37¢ | 39¢ | +$47 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 45¢ | 34¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $-111 | loss |
Tech 85% +$2,434
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$662 | win |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$335 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the #1 searched song on Google this year? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 65% +$2,033
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-4,265 | loss |
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$760 | win |
| Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-531 | loss |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-623 | loss |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-118 | loss |
| Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$169 | win |
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-395 | loss |
| Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Weather 100% +$194
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a cat 5 hurricane make US landfall during Hurricane Season 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | win |
| Arsonists arrested in connection with LA wildfires? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Tsunami flooding in downtown San Francisco? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Esports 0% $-55
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 1 Winner | Voca | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
Finance 64% $-1,080
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 69¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-425 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-754 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 2? | Down | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| X and Truth Social merger announced before August? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Sports 55% $-6,571
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | loss |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 79¢ | 98¢ | $-10 | loss |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-637 | loss |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | Thunder | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | win |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors | Nuggets | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-485 | loss |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | Spurs | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$248 | win |
| Will Santana perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Will Brian Callahan be the next coach fired? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$860 | $27,173 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | $1,260 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $2,402 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 87.1¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | $871 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 57.9¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $579 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 88.6¢ | 8¢ | $-146 | $1,772 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 81.8¢ | 0¢ | $-315 | $2,045 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2,429 | $24,975 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$706 | $145,692 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 86.8¢ | 92¢ | +$111 | $2,604 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$828 | $4,650 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 77.1¢ | 99¢ | +$613 | $2,314 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$597 | $2,400 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 61.5¢ | 84¢ | +$164 | $1,076 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $415 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 3.0¢ | 1¢ | $-32 | $45 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64.8¢ | 84¢ | +$471 | $3,062 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 63.8¢ | 0¢ | $-637 | $638 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 32.3¢ | 17¢ | $-75 | $162 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 38.4¢ | 16¢ | $-94 | $158 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $4,965 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $195 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,293 | $430,198 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | $25,435 | 07/04/2026 |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $168 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 23.1¢ | 0¢ | $-774 | $4,435 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 50.6¢ | 9¢ | $-1,272 | $15,445 | 07/04/2026 |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $125 | 04/04/2026 |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | $96 | 04/04/2026 |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $14,955 | 01/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6,579 | $134,516 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5,084 | $173,100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,484 | $89,538 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,999 | $109,940 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,368 | $11,132 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 30.2¢ | 50¢ | +$1,284 | $4,041 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 64.9¢ | 100¢ | +$927 | $2,270 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$742 | $21,639 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$611 | $85,044 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$549 | $10,022 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$539 | $1,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$410 | $24,590 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$377 | $13,918 | 31/03/2026 |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$349 | $4,651 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | $1,655 | 31/03/2026 |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | $1,706 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 60.3¢ | 0¢ | +$290 | $2,112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$222 | $7,062 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 88¢ | +$220 | $2,415 | 31/03/2026 |