Win rate
59.4%
1716 W / 1172 L
Total PnL
$-8,251
realized $-11,508 · unrealized $3,257
Portfolio
$3,257
volume $881,962
Predictions
4,150
7.8/day · avg $213
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Mentions 34% +$1,086
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-135 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-332 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-248 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | loss |
| Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-228 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Geopolitics 54% +$172
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 70¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$12 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 72¢ | 18¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 66¢ | +$13 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 80¢ | $-48 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-179 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 66¢ | 97¢ | +$5 | win |
Politics 50% +$98
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 56¢ | 50¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
Culture 59% +$23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 78¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m? | Yes | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m? | No | 84¢ | 97¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$712 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-194 | loss |
Tech 40% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 72¢ | 60¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 24¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Weather 50% $-17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 10? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Elections 42% $-68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82¢ | 90¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 21¢ | 25¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 84¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 34¢ | 16¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | No | 83¢ | 16¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
Sports 17% $-594
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T20 World Cup: Australia vs Ireland (Game 1) | Australia | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Team Vitality | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | loss |
| LoL: BRUTE vs CITA Kaizen (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs | CITA Kaizen | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-84 | loss |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | Dplus KIA | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | DRX | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-176 | loss |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | DN Freecs | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
Esports 36% $-1,089
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow Six Siege: Vince Seven Esports vs AdvoGatos - Game 2 Winner | AdvoGatos | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-314 | loss |
| Rainbow Six Siege: Vince Seven Esports vs AdvoGatos - Game 1 Winner | Vince Seven Esports | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-784 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | Vitality | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | FUT Esports | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | win |
| Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs los kogutos (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup 1 Playoffs | ENCE Academy | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | Heroic | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | PARIVISION | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-114 | loss |
| LoL: DMG Esports vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season | Ruddy Esports | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs | Gentle Mates | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Voca vs SportsBetExpert (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Qualifier Playoffs | SportsBetExpert | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | loss |
Crypto 61% $-2,110
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | Down | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$328 | win |
| Solana Up or Down - March 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | Down | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | Down | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET | Up | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | Up | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Solana Up or Down - March 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET | Down | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
Other 62% $-3,363
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 75¢ | 60¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$5 | win |
| Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 8¢ | $-113 | loss |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | No | 51¢ | 60¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1? | No | 89¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 76¢ | 64¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April? | No | 96¢ | 77¢ | $-48 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 66.3¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $173 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $94 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 10.8¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $146 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 86.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $70 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 55.5¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $94 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $103 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 72.7¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $45 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 47.5¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | $90 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 35.5¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $22 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $56 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 84¢ | +$31 | $96 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 33.9¢ | 16¢ | $-12 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | No | 83.3¢ | 16¢ | $-30 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $394 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $25 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 70.3¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | $515 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 78.4¢ | 7¢ | $-10 | $42 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.2¢ | 93¢ | +$48 | $180 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 49.5¢ | 100¢ | +$712 | $751 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $708 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m? | No | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $267 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | No | 40.9¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $47 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 42.2¢ | 0¢ | $-566 | $739 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | $218 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m? | Yes | 57.9¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $43 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $98 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 45.8¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | $244 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $1,470 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 57.8¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | $292 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $149 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 86.3¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $368 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 52.6¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 20.8¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $310 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 56.8¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $245 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $114 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| AWS service disrupted by March 31? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $319 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $397 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |