Win rate
72.6%
98 W / 37 L
Total PnL
$241
realized $-2,908 · unrealized $3,149
Portfolio
$3,149
volume $85,818
Predictions
1,297
40.0/day · avg $66
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 63% +$820
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 72¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 69¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 82¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 59¢ | 17¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 35¢ | 6¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 72¢ | +$79 | win |
Politics 85% +$144
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 50¢ | 55¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | No | 56¢ | 28¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 72¢ | 46¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 30¢ | 44¢ | +$167 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 28¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Left Behind" during Monday news conference? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "World Cup" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Mine dropper" this week? (April 5) | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 89% +$103
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 48¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29¢ | 50¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate after the April Meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Rigged" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Fenerbahce | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons vs. Magic | Magic | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Panthers vs. Penguins | Penguins | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Major 2 Playoffs | OpTic Texas | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Esports 89% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Group B | Inner Circle | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs | ShindeN | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage | Ivory | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Skele (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffs | Rooster | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | FUT Esports | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs | Vitality | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner | Mandatory | 59¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship Group A | fnatic | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: No Surrender vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #3 Playoffs | OlyBet SB | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 50% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk | Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 0% $-30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $102 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 51.8¢ | 12¢ | +$0 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $48 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | $227 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $113 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 53.3¢ | 88¢ | +$79 | $592 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $20 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 13.9¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $57 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate after the April Meeting? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Rigged" during meetings with Orbán? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the April decision? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $90 | 07/04/2026 |
| Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Group B | Inner Circle | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 07/04/2026 |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Fenerbahce | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 99.0¢ | 12¢ | $-39 | $75 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 73.1¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | $209 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 55.8¢ | 88¢ | $-45 | $1,921 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" during Monday news conference? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Eight War" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs | ShindeN | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Jesus Christ" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage | Ivory | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Left Behind" during Monday news conference? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Skele (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffs | Rooster | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Magic | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage | FUT Esports | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "World Cup" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Panthers vs. Penguins | Penguins | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Chandler Phillips win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Mine dropper" this week? (April 5) | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 05/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $20 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 47.9¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $288 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 30.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Impeach" or "Impeachment" on Truth Social this week? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kaitlan Collins" this week? (March 29) | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $20 | 29/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs | Vitality | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $20 | 29/03/2026 |