teskasonda

Geopolitics 88% +$11,543 $839,936 vol · 431 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	33¢	70¢	+$26	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	38¢	25¢	$-58	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	81¢	94¢	+$11	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$1,496	win
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	12¢	72¢	+$32	win
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	42¢	68¢	+$85	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	77¢	96¢	$-8	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	90¢	90¢	+$0	—

Politics 92% +$4,196 $339,465 vol · 348 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump visit Switzerland in 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	91¢	78¢	$-41	loss
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	55¢	72¢	+$105	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	58¢	52¢	$-221	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	96¢	100¢	+$66	win
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	70¢	83¢	+$52	win
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	No	97¢	99¢	+$35	win
Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	97¢	99¢	+$10	win
Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	98¢	100¢	+$17	win

Other 92% +$2,932 $513,723 vol · 413 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Lighter Airdrop before January 1?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	50¢	10¢	+$0	—
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	50¢	90¢	+$0	—
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	No	100¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Chris Fusco get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Priyanka Grandhi get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?	No	99¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	44¢	0¢	+$47	win
Claude 4.7 released by April 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	23¢	8¢	$-115	loss
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Economy 96% +$2,077 $44,599 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?	No	35¢	100¢	+$842	win
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$422	win
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	No	100¢	100¢	+$-0	—
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$95	win
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$53	win
Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown?	No	100¢	100¢	+$9	win
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	+$11	win

Culture 88% +$2,063 $309,269 vol · 237 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?	No	86¢	92¢	+$13	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$180	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?	No	99¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	76¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 41m?	No	97¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?	No	99¢	100¢	$-52	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15m and $16m?	No	96¢	100¢	+$3	win

Crypto 91% +$526 $56,866 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	Gold	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?	No	81¢	100¢	+$221	win
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 10-16?	No	92¢	100¢	+$52	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	51¢	0¢	$-102	loss
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 20-26?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$47	win
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	No	80¢	100¢	+$42	win
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
alon called coin FDV above $5M one day after the call?	No	99¢	100¢	+$11	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	100¢	100¢	+$2	win

Weather 100% +$133 $17,806 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 8?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$3	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Earthquake 7.0 or above by September 30?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$11	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$6	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$3	win

Esports 100% +$123 $290 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs NSN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #3 Playoffs	Chinggis Warriors	59¢	100¢	+$123	win
League of Legends: Alpha7 Esports vs. Vivo Keyd Stars Academy	Vivo Keyd	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Finance 85% +$65 $11,544 vol · 41 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 23?	Up	80¢	100¢	$-24	loss
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 23?	Down	86¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	93¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings?	No	90¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Labcorp Holdings (LH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13?	Up	99¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Dupont De Nemours (DD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$3	win

Elections 100% +$64 $10,707 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?	Yes	98¢	99¢	+$9	win
Will JD Vance say "Midterm" during the fundraiser?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week? (February 15)	No	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025	No	98¢	100¢	+$5	win
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?	No	99¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Heather Humphreys win by 15–20%?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Czech election?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$7	win

Tech 100% +$63 $6,476 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$29	win
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will "Hollow Knight: Silksong" Metascore be <85	No	100¢	100¢	+$3	win
GPT transaction fees by December 31?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 9?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on September 9?	No	99¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will GPT-5 be released on August 13?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win

Mentions 100% +$21 $296 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	Yes	39¢	0¢	+$21	win
Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will SBF tweet again by Wednesday?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Sports 82% $-28 $23,819 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Josh Hokit	74¢	100¢	+$301	win
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jirí Procházka	50¢	0¢	$-250	loss
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Azamat Murzakanov	69¢	0¢	$-345	loss
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?	Yes	57¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?	No	60¢	0¢	$-5	loss
UFC Fight Night: Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)	Gillian Robertson	56¢	100¢	$-14	loss
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)	Josh Emmett	18¢	0¢	$-180	loss
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	Charles Oliveira	91¢	100¢	+$134	win
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Raul Rosas Jr.	98¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win