0x46763EfE923365323210a6aD2C01dAbCF15d6065-1772195585541

Geopolitics 53% +$199 $2,373 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	54¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	52¢	18¢	$-17	loss
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	41¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	45¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	31¢	22¢	$-15	loss
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	37¢	100¢	+$144	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	78¢	94¢	+$10	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	24¢	30¢	+$53	win

Other 57% +$42 $450 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	54¢	42¢	$-10	loss
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	64¢	72¢	+$7	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	48¢	46¢	$-3	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	No	71¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	71¢	100¢	+$15	win

Finance 33% +$26 $200 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	54¢	56¢	$-6	loss
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	58¢	57¢	$-2	loss
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$33	win

Weather 100% +$20 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?	No	57¢	100¢	+$20	win

Politics 100% +$6 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	73¢	100¢	+$6	win

Mentions 0% $-12 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$-12	loss

Elections 50% $-40 $650 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	64¢	44¢	$-62	loss
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	64¢	46¢	$-57	loss
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	42¢	+$7	win
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?	Yes	66¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?	No	59¢	100¢	+$35	win

Crypto 29% $-129 $542 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	No	62¢	0¢	+$6	win
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 19?	Yes	52¢	0¢	$-15	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4?	Yes	46¢	100¢	$-11	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4?	No	34¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	67¢	0¢	$-50	loss