Win rate
69.6%
32 W / 14 L
Total PnL
$135
realized $-609 · unrealized $744
Portfolio
$744
volume $15,003
Predictions
148
3.5/day · avg $101
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 73% +$114
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 80¢ | +$3 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 57¢ | 72¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | No | 39¢ | 6¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 39¢ | 20¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 62¢ | 94¢ | +$27 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 78¢ | 72¢ | +$6 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$25 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 70¢ | 50¢ | $-9 | loss |
Elections 100% +$11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Other 67% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | No | 68¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 53¢ | 52¢ | $-1 | loss |
Tech 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 40% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 41¢ | 58¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Crypto 80% $-7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 14-20? | Yes | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 17-23? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Sports 0% $-17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hungary record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
Recent Trades (46)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 89.9¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $76 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 92.6¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $55 | 07/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $232 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $167 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? | Yes | 68.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 20/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $119 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Kevin Hassett in February? | Yes | 35.7¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $25 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in February? | Yes | 59.6¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $24 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February? | Yes | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $87 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 17-23? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $90 | 24/02/2026 |
| Will Hungary record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 41.4¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $29 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? | Yes | 11.3¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $29 | 17/02/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $40 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting? | Yes | 45.6¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $176 | 10/02/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $152 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $68 | 31/01/2026 |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31? | No | 69.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $24 | 31/01/2026 |
| Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $67 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $67 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $37 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 80.8¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $36 | 01/01/1970 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 14-20? | Yes | 94.3¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $21 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 14-20? | Yes | 92.8¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $37 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 91.6¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | $128 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30? | No | 85.2¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | $26 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 99¢ | +$25 | $376 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 58¢ | $-4 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 70.0¢ | 50¢ | $-9 | $101 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 84.5¢ | 51¢ | $-19 | $124 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 93.6¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | $137 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 72¢ | +$6 | $112 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 78.0¢ | 72¢ | +$6 | $121 | 31/05/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 38.8¢ | 20¢ | $-45 | $101 | 30/06/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 82.3¢ | 92¢ | +$30 | $362 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 62.3¢ | 94¢ | +$27 | $87 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | No | 39.0¢ | 6¢ | $-5 | $46 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 56.7¢ | 72¢ | +$34 | $121 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 53.4¢ | 52¢ | $-1 | $32 | 31/12/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 30.1¢ | 80¢ | +$3 | $29 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | No | 68.5¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | $21 | 31/12/2026 |