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Politics 65% +$1,613 $14,394 vol · 98 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	9¢	6¢	+$0	—
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	35¢	62¢	+$10	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	58¢	93¢	+$15	win
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	71¢	58¢	$-9	loss
Will Trump post "Ass" or "Shit" this week on Truth Social?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-38	loss
Will Trump post "Ass" or "Shit" this week on Truth Social?	No	73¢	0¢	$-19	loss
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	67¢	100¢	+$13	win

Geopolitics 58% +$455 $38,676 vol · 129 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-7	loss
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-69	loss
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	83¢	88¢	+$11	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	93¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$-13	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	18¢	0¢	$-36	loss
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	22¢	0¢	$-38	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	80¢	0¢	$-60	loss
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	51¢	30¢	$-114	loss

Elections 38% +$64 $1,674 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the next Pope require 3–4 ballots?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-56	loss
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?	No	34¢	0¢	$-105	loss
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$29	win
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?	No	54¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 20-21m?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-81	loss
Canada election called before April?	No	8¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will the New Democrats win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?	Yes	25¢	100¢	+$102	win
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$199	win

Tech 78% +$32 $3,605 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	43¢	44¢	+$7	win
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of March?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of March?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $260?	Yes	58¢	0¢	$-233	loss
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on March 2?	Yes	14¢	0¢	+$58	win
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on March 2?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of February?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on February 12?	No	98¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-248	loss
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$5	win

Culture 25% +$28 $162 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-61	loss

Crypto 73% $-24 $716 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	No	25¢	0¢	+$7	win
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	Yes	46¢	0¢	+$1	win
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	No	49¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024?	No	88¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?	No	69¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	Yes	55¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?	No	74¢	100¢	+$23	win
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?	Yes	63¢	100¢	+$18	win

Economy 50% $-41 $424 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-70	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-41	loss

Mentions 65% $-51 $1,264 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	64¢	74¢	+$6	win
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	68¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	90¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	34¢	1¢	+$11	win
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	81¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	74¢	0¢	$-5	loss
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	No	93¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?	No	86¢	100¢	+$9	win

Weather 0% $-58 $58 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June?	Yes	64¢	0¢	$-58	loss

Other 63% $-309 $10,378 vol · 70 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	65¢	76¢	+$87	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	17¢	54¢	+$42	win
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	64¢	96¢	+$25	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	86¢	46¢	$-36	loss
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?	Yes	20¢	13¢	$-10	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	No	65¢	100¢	$-29	loss
Netanyahu out by March 31?	No	96¢	100¢	+$20	win
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	31¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	Yes	41¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	46¢	100¢	$-28	loss