politicalsavant

Politics 57% +$4,786 $25,449 vol · 70 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	75¢	100¢	+$330	win
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	No	79¢	100¢	+$46	win
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	44¢	0¢	$-89	loss
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	No	87¢	91¢	+$4	win
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	Yes	18¢	17¢	$-17	loss
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	53¢	48¢	$-149	loss
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$-8	loss
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	9¢	8¢	$-12	loss
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	24¢	40¢	+$1,222	win
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	Yes	80¢	90¢	+$16	win

Sports 51% +$3,761 $157,492 vol · 890 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	37¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will the announcers say "Blood" or "Bloody" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Josh Allen win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	No	90¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	5¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?	No	70¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?	Yes	10¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship?	No	79¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs?	Yes	67¢	0¢	+$7	win
Buccaneers vs. Rams	Buccaneers	24¢	0¢	$-200	loss
Jaguars vs. Cardinals	Jaguars	55¢	100¢	+$164	win

Crypto 77% +$899 $68,172 vol · 328 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	91¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?	No	8¢	0¢	$-84	loss
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?	No	83¢	100¢	+$137	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	No	45¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1?	No	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET	Down	55¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	No	91¢	100¢	+$18	win

Tech 86% +$16 $3,863 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	49¢	41¢	+$1	win
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?	Yes	55¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?	Yes	82¢	100¢	$-28	loss
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?	No	91¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?	No	91¢	100¢	+$15	win

Culture 71% $-39 $826 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Hudson Williams attend the Oscars?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-61	loss
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$16	win

Weather 0% $-143 $1,571 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?	Yes	43¢	0¢	$-143	loss

Other 41% $-301 $70,064 vol · 353 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	39¢	12¢	$-88	loss
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	46¢	86¢	+$38	win
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?	Yes	36¢	34¢	+$22	win
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	62¢	60¢	$-7	loss
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	29¢	38¢	+$18	win
Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	19¢	60¢	+$269	win
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	10¢	58¢	+$235	win
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	23¢	2¢	+$527	win
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	55¢	94¢	+$19	win

Economy 50% $-714 $10,007 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	88¢	92¢	+$13	win
US recession in 2025?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-303	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$50	win
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	83¢	100¢	+$12	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-84	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-338	loss
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	27¢	100¢	$-21	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-28	loss

Geopolitics 45% $-1,088 $21,893 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-22?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will RB Leipzig vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	100¢	+$158	win
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	100¢	+$142	win
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-01-25?	No	70¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-24?	Yes	43¢	100¢	+$66	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?	No	81¢	100¢	+$96	win

Elections 55% $-14,472 $40,485 vol · 60 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	31¢	36¢	+$0	—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$-1	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	45¢	46¢	+$2	win
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat?	No	82¢	86¢	+$4	win
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	38¢	38¢	$-1	loss
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	53¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	20¢	0¢	+$7	win
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	35¢	44¢	+$132	win
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	63¢	64¢	+$1	win
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	70¢	68¢	$-11	loss